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Bubble breakdown: Syracuse's loss ensures an anxious wait until Sunday

Jim Boeheim’s team has won just twice away from home all season. (AP)
Jim Boeheim’s team has won just twice away from home all season. (AP)

Syracuse’s final audition before the NCAA tournament selection committee wasn’t as convincing as the Orange hoped it would be.

Instead of locking up a bid with a deep ACC tournament run, they suffered a 62-57 loss in their opening game against ninth-seeded Miami.

The game swung in Miami’s favor when Tyus Battle missed a two-handed dunk that would have trimmed Syracuse’s deficit to one with less than three minutes to go. Miami’s JaQuan Newton secured the long carom and fed teammate Kamari Murphy for a transition slam, a four-point swing that gave the Hurricanes the cushion they needed to close out the win.

At 18-14 overall and 10-8 in the ACC, Syracuse will have an uneasy wait until Selection Sunday. The Orange went from the bubble to the Final Four last March, but last year’s team had far more regular season success away from home than this year’s has.

Whereas last year’s Syracuse team tallied six road or neutral victories including wins over Duke, UConn and Texas A&M, this year’s squad is just 2-11 away from the Carrier Dome. The pair of victories aren’t exactly convincing either, a one-point win over Clemson and an overtime win over NC State.

The other blight on Syracuse’s resume is its six losses to teams not expected to make the NCAA tournament, a list that includes a dreadful 33-point drubbing from St. John’s and a terrible road loss at Boston College. Those outcomes help explain why Syracuse’s RPI is 79, way higher than many other bubble teams.

Why is Syracuse in contention for an NCAA tournament bid at all given all that? It’s simple. The Orange have also proven they can beat elite teams. Few other bubble teams have a list of wins anywhere near as impressive as Virginia, Duke, Florida State, Miami and Wake Forest, albeit each of them at home.

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Whether that’s enough to counteract the flaws on Syracuse’s resume will be a hotly debated topic between now and Sunday. The Orange had a chance to bolster their case with a run in the ACC tournament, but on Wednesday, they let that opportunity slip through their fingers.

BUBBLE WINNERS

Cal (20-11, 10-8, RPI 56, KenPom 55): Here’s the most complimentary thing that can be said about the Cal’s 67-62 victory over last-place Oregon State in Wednesday’s opening round of the Pac-12 tournament: At least the Bears didn’t lose and doom themselves to the NIT. Now Cal still has hope, albeit plenty of work to do. Since the Bears are just 1-7 against the RPI top 50, they surely have to win their quarterfinal against Utah on Thursday and they might have to win a potential semifinal against top-seeded Oregon too.

Xavier (20-12, 9-9, RPI 33, KenPom 44): Seldom can a win over DePaul be described as “big,” but that’s certainly the case for Xavier on Wednesday night. The Musketeers could not afford to drop their Big East tournament opener to the Blue Demons, just like they also could not afford to lose to DePaul in their regular season finale. Whether Xavier is safe now will likely depend on if the committee assesses its entire season or merely the portion since Edmond Sumner’s season-ending knee injury. The Musketeers’ season-long resume and impressive strength of schedule is comfortably enough for an at-large bid, but DePaul is the only team they’ve beaten in a full month.

BUBBLE LOSERS

Wake Forest (19-13, 9-9, RPI 34, KenPom 30): Wake Forest gave itself hope by avoiding disaster in its ACC tournament opener against Boston College on Tuesday. The Demon Deacons could not all but seal a bid the next night, however, as they wasted a seven-point halftime lead against Virginia Tech and fell 99-90. It will be an anxious few days for Wake Forest, but there’s more to like about its profile than other bubble teams. The Demon Deacons boast quality wins over Louisville, Miami and Virginia Tech and don’t have a single loss against an opponent outside the KenPom top 50. Of course the counterargument to that is Wake Forest had 16 cracks at top 50 opponents and only won three.

Georgia Tech (17-15, 8-10, RPI 105, KenPom 80): The Yellowjackets needed a deep ACC tournament run to have any chance at an NCAA bid. Instead they suffered a bubble-bursting opening-round loss to Pittsburgh on Tuesday night, realistically dooming themselves to the NIT. Four wins over surefire NCAA tournament teams gave Georgia Tech hope of reaching the NCAA tournament, a goal that would have seemed unfathomable when Josh Pastner took over last spring. But the Yellow Jackets didn’t finish the season well enough, dropping four of their last five culminating with Tuesday’s disappointing loss.

Clemson (17-15, 6-12, RPI 63, KenPom 35): It’s fitting that Clemson’s NCAA tournament hopes expired with another close loss. The Tigers lost by seven or fewer for the 12th time this season, this time falling 79-72 at the hands of Duke in the second round of the ACC tournament. Clemson may very well be one of the 36 best at-large candidates in college basketball, but its resume clearly doesn’t reflect that. Wake Forest and South Carolina are the best teams the Tigers have beaten, and that’s not nearly enough to offset 15 losses and a 6-12 league record.

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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at daggerblog@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!