Brown: Offense can carry Kentucky basketball to Final Four if defense, rebounding improves
No question Kentucky men’s basketball looks like a Final Four contender offensively with the number of weapons it has, the different ways it can score and the way it shares the ball.
The problem is, as demonstrated in the Wildcats’ 97-92 overtime loss to Texas A&M, they can’t always depend on outscoring teams. The game revealed weaknesses in rebounding and defense that they have to tighten up to reach their potential.
Kenpom.com has UK rated eighth nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. It's also eighth in 3-point shooting percentage (39.8). It is third in turnover percentage — trailing only Richmond and UNC Wilmington — and first among teams from high major conferences.
Going back to the 1998-99 season, where KenPom.com records begin, only 2003 Syracuse (17), 2011 Connecticut (19) and 2014 UConn (39) have won a national title with an offense rankings outside the top 10 in adjusted efficiency.
Scoring won’t be a problem.
If leading scorer Antonio Reeves has an off game from outside like he did last postseason in a loss to Kansas State, Reed Sheppard (54.1%), Robert Dillingham (42.2%) and Tre Mitchell (33.9%) can all lead the way from behind the arc.
But there is no one who can compensate for Oscar Tshiebwe's rebounding.
It hasn’t been as simple as UK getting its 7-footers in the lineup. Aaron Bradshaw, a 7-foot-1 freshman, and Ugonna Onyenso, a 7-foot sophomore, missed a combined 16 games to start the season due to injuries.
Since they’ve been back, the Cats have still been outrebounded in three (Illinois State, Florida, Texas A&M) of their last six games.
Mitchell leads the team with an 8.1 rebounding average and has benefited from having the centers back. They allow the 6-foot-9 Mitchell to move to the four, where he’s currently on a five-game streak of having at least 10 rebounds after not having any while Bradshaw and Oyenso were out.
But Mitchell doesn’t erase all concerns with rebounding in the way Tshiebwe did during his two seasons at UK. He was a big reason why the Cats led the nation in offensive rebounding percentage last season and ranked fourth in 2021-22.
They no longer have the kind of player who rebounds outside of his area in the way Tshiebwe did and it’s showing. UK ranks 213th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, according to KenPom.com.
That same site has the Cats’ defense ranked 54th in adjusted efficiency. No team since the 1998-99 season has won a national championship while ranking outside the top 20 in adjusted defense.
This Kentucky will never be the kind of team that locks down its opponent defensively. But it has to become more than just a team that plays just enough defense while anticipating getting the ball back. The Cats are the second-to-last team in the Southeastern Conference in causing turnovers.
They've got some time to get things right defensively.
Since their 7-footers have been in the lineup, the Cats have recorded eight or more blocked shots in a game four times after having done it just once through the first seven games.
The upcoming schedule against Mississippi State, Georgia, South Carolina and Arkansas are teams that all rank in the bottom half of the SEC in offensive efficiency.
Kentucky's got too good of an offensive thing going this season to waste it because it didn't get enough stops or loose balls. Those are areas it better improve because a Final Four appearance could depend on it.
Reach sports columnist C.L. Brown at clbrown1@gannett.com, follow him on X at @CLBrownHoops and subscribe to his newsletter at profile.courier-journal.com/newsletters/cl-browns-latest to make sure you never miss one of his columns.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Kentucky basketball: Defense, rebounding could keep Cats from Final 4