Brock Purdy vs. Tom Brady: The similarities are striking
Let’s start with what this column is not about.
Namely that the coaching-quarterback combination of San Francisco’s Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy is going to become the next Bill Belichick and Tom Brady of New England. More specifically, that this is a prediction that six Vince Lombardi Trophies, 17 divisional titles, Purdy developing into the greatest quarterback the sport has ever known and Shanahan being feted as an all-time coaching innovator with his own line of hooded sweatshirts is en route.
Those standards are absurd. They would have been absurd back in 2001 when Brady, the late-round draft pick who few, if any, believed could even be a viable NFL starter took the field for Belichick, who still had plenty to prove after failing to get out of his own way earlier in his career.
At that point it was just a promising coach and an unknown quarterback who, week after week, began to make doubters reconsider just exactly what they had been thinking as Brady meshed, seamlessly and perfectly, with his coach.
Sort of like Shanahan and Purdy right now.
Purdy, of course, is an even longer shot than Brady.
Brady was drafted in the sixth round, 199th overall in 2000. He was considered a good competitor after a couple of winning seasons at Michigan, but certainly not an elite talent. He was a late-round gamble, who arrived fourth on the depth chart that was dominated by starter Drew Bledsoe, whom in 2001 the Patriots outlaid a fortune to with a $100 million contract.
Purdy went even deeper in the draft, the deepest actually, No. 262 out of 262 in 2022. He, too, was a good competitor after a couple of winning seasons at Iowa State, but certainly not an elite talent. The Niners put him third on their depth chart behind veteran Jimmy Garoppolo and signal-caller of the future Trey Lance, who the Niners traded away a fortune in assets to draft No. 3 overall in 2021.
Game managers. Projects. You had to be a hardcore fan to know Brady and Purdy were even on the roster.
Back in New England, when Bledsoe got hurt during the 2001 season, Brady stepped in and did the simple things to lead New England to the playoffs. He showed poise in pressure moments and playoff games.
Yet by the Super Bowl, there was discussion about whether Bledsoe, again healthy, should get the starting nod. When New England had a chance for a late-game, potential title-winning drive in Super Bowl XXXVI, faith in Brady was still so low that commentator John Madden thought the Patriots should play for overtime.
Last year in San Francisco, when Garoppolo and then Lance got hurt, Purdy came in and won five consecutive games by playing what was perceived to be simple, mostly mistake-free football. He didn’t wow critics with a cannon arm, but he was delivering on the scoreboard. Then he got hurt.
The way Belichick wound up trading Bledsoe away to clear a path for Brady, Shanahan has done the same for Purdy. He’s the starter now and is 5-0 on the season. On Sunday he completely and thoroughly outplayed Dak Prescott and the Cowboys, who picked up Lance from the Niners for a fourth-round pick.
Early in Brady’s career, plenty of credit for the Patriots' success was passed onto the defense and Belichick’s elite coaching and strategy. Some of that was fair. That unit was ferocious, allowing just 17.0 points a game (sixth overall) and just 15.6 in the playoffs in that 2001 season.
Ty Law. Lawyer Milloy. Tedy Bruschi. Willie McGinest. Mike Vrabel. Richard Seymour. Roman Phifer. It was relentless and star-studded, kind of the way San Fran currently is with Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Dre Greenlaw, Talanoa Hufanga, Charvarius Ward and so on.
If anything, San Francisco is much further along than New England was when Brady came onto the scene. The Pats went 5-11 in 2000, while the Niners have made the NFC Championship game each of the last two years and the Super Bowl as recently as the 2019 season.
And Purdy is throwing up much better individual stats than Brady. Yes, this is, of course, a very different era of football. Brady was not blessed with the complimentary talent that Purdy currently is — Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk. And Shanahan is a noted offensive coach where Belichick was famed as a defensive innovator.
Still, Brady completed just 63.9 percent of his passes and averaged just 189.5 yards per game in 2001. He had 18 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. His yards per attempt were just 6.9 which, in this day and age, would rank 20th in the league.
Purdy is completing 72.1 percent of his passes and is averaging 254.2 yards per game and 9.3 yards per attempt. As mentioned, his TD-to-interception ratio is a perfect 9-0.
Meanwhile, Shanahan is still just 43 years old but in his seventh season as a NFL head coach. Belichick was 49 in 2001 but also in his seventh season.
Belichick was trying to prove himself after a mostly losing five-year run in Cleveland led to his firing. Shanahan is in his first head coaching job, but is looking for a championship to help erase some disastrous decisions as offensive coordinator in Atlanta when the Falcons blew a 28-3 Super Bowl lead to … Brady and Belichick.
It’s not a perfect comparison. Different players, different situations, different eras. And we repeat, any current similarities aren’t a predictor of future performance.
Still, if the rise of Brady from late in the draft to proving all the critics wrong was an enjoyable storyline a couple decades ago, well, something close to it may be unfolding again.
What’s old might just be new.
