Bills want to be the Chiefs: 3 questions Buffalo must answer to beat the defending champs
ORCHARD PARK - Sean McDermott has never been shy about saying it: He looks at the Kansas City Chiefs and admits that’s exactly what he wants for the Buffalo Bills.
The Chiefs are a well-oiled machine in how their organization is run and they have been ever since Andy Reid took over as coach in 2013 and then Brett Veach moved up from within to his current role as general manager in 2017.
We all know the history. The Chiefs have won eight consecutive AFC West division titles and in that time they have won three AFC championships, and two Super Bowls. They aren’t the 2001 through 2018, six-time Super Bowl champion Patriots in terms of a dynasty, but their run of success is nonetheless impressive.
Sign up for the Bills Blast newsletter Delivered straight to your inbox, additional Bills analysis, insight, stats, quotes and team history from Sal Maiorana
“I think it’s a testament to who they are as an organization and the success that they’ve been able to have and then sustain,” McDermott said Wednesday of the team that has ended Buffalo’s season in two of the previous three years and will look to do so again Sunday in an AFC divisional round game at Highmark Stadium.
McDermott concedes Kansas City’s stature as a model NFL franchise, but he also believes the Bills are right there. After all, the Bills and Chiefs are the only two teams to have reached the divisional round of the playoffs in four straight years (it’s actually six for the Chiefs). Now, the Bills need to take the next step, and it starts with getting past a postseason nemesis.
“I just think overall that with where we’ve been able to get to, I think it’s starting to say a lot about who we are and what we’ve been able to achieve and then sustain as well,” he said. “I think there’s two good organizations and two good teams that have earned the right to be here.”
And by here, he means Orchard Park after five straight meetings (including two in the postseason) that were contested at Arrowhead Stadium.
“We’re just grateful that it is at home for our fans,” McDermott said. “That they can watch us play this deep in the playoffs. It’s hard to get to where we are, and I can’t tell you how proud I am of our guys and the way they’ve persevered throughout this whole season. They’ve become very resilient in their identity and that’s become their nature.”
If the Bills are going to slay the Chiefs, here are three questions that must be answered?
1. Can Stefon Diggs make an impact?
When the teams met on Dec. 10, Diggs was already in the midst of a downturn in his production. After piling up five 100-yard games in the first six of the season, Diggs never had another 100-yarder the rest of the season, and his least impactful game all year came against the Chiefs.
The Bills pulled out a 20-17 victory, but he managed only four catches on 11 targets for 24 yards, the second-lowest yardage total of his four-year tenure in Buffalo. And the main reason for that was Chiefs cornerback L’Jarius Sneed, who covered Diggs most of the day.
In that game, Sneed was outstanding, which was nothing new because that’s how he played all year. Josh Allen threw in his direction seven times and only one pass was completed for one yard as Sneed was credited with three pass breakups and four forced incompletions.
For the season, Sneed was targeted 90 times and allowed just 45 completions, a completion percentage of 50.0 which was tied for third-best among all cornerbacks. His 18 forced incompletions were second-most, he allowed no touchdowns, and had two interceptions.
“He’s playing real good football, All-Pro level,” Reid said. “I mean that’s what he is. He’s doing a nice job.”
Actually, Sneed didn’t make All-Pro, which was kind of ridiculous. Dallas’ DaRon Bland was a first-teamer because he had five interception-return touchdowns, but overall, he wasn’t anywhere close to Sneed’s level in 2023. For that matter, first-teamer Sauce Gardner of the Jets, and second-teamers Jaylon Johnson of the Bears and Charvarius Ward might not have been, either.
Diggs will have to, no pun intended, dig deep in this game because the Bills are going to need their playmakers to be on point. But if Sneed takes away Diggs, then it will fall to players like Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox to give Allen viable targets.
2. Is Travis Kelce the biggest concern for the Bills’ defense?
A couple months ago, the answer probably would have been yes. After all, even in a season where the 34-year-old boyfriend of Taylor Swift began to show signs of decline, he still caught 93 passes for 984 yards and five TDs. Yes, it was his first non-1,000-yard season since 2014 (barely), and he did drop eight passes, which were the most he’s had since nine in 2018, but he remained the focal point of the Kansas City offense.
And let’s not forget that in nine career games against the Bills, counting two in the postseason, Kelce has a combined 55 catches for 654 yards and seven TDs, including, of course, the game-winner in overtime in the debacle forever to be known as the “13 seconds game.” The guy has been a menace to Buffalo.
However, the Bills have two other players they need to worry about every bit as much – running back Isiah Pacheco and rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice.
Pacheco missed the game in December and that was a nice break for the Bills. He is a super aggressive runner, a tough player to tackle, and in his second NFL season he rushed for 935 yards (4.6 per carry) and caught 44 passes for 244 yards with nine total TDs.
Among the 23 running backs with at least 200 rushing attempts, his average of 2.98 yards after contact was 10th-best and his 41 missed tackles forced was 16th.
“He gives them a lot of energy; he’s extremely tough,” McDermott said. “He’s a very important piece for that offense and we have a lot of respect for his game and the energy he brings to that football team. It’s just another piece with that running game that they’ve got going, they become even tougher to handle.”
And then there’s Rice, who has really emerged as the only wide receiver that Mahomes trusts. The second-round pick had 36 catches on 46 targets for 420 yards and four TDs through 10 games. In the seven games since then counting the Miami playoff game, Rice has 51 catches on 68 targets for 648 yards and four TDs.
In the first game against the Bills he had seven catches for 72 yards and a TD, and against the Dolphins in his playoff debut, Rice led the Chiefs with eight catches for 130 yards and a TD.
“He’s a guy who wants it," Mahomes said. "That’s the biggest thing. He wants to be great. He has a chance to be a great receiver in this league, and we’re going to continue to push him to be that. He’ll just say, ‘I’m going to be there. I’m going to do what I need to do to get myself open. I’m going to make something happen with it.’ That’s the type of guys you want.”
3. Can the Bills’ backups get the job done?
Buffalo’s lengthy injury list is a big concern, there’s no way around that. The Bills started the Steelers’ game down four key players, including three on defense, then lost five more players in the wild-card game, four of those on defense.
The Bills conducted a walk-through practice Wednesday but they will have regular workouts Thursday and Friday and it will be very interesting to see the participation status of several players.
It seems possible that linebacker Tyrel Dodson and cornerbacks Taron Johnson and Rasul Douglas are trending in the right direction, but that’s only a guess. McDermott was hopeful on linebacker Terrel Bernard, but when a player gets carted off the field, it seems pretty unlikely that he’ll be ready to play six days later.
As for starting cornerback Christian Benford, starting wide receiver Gabe Davis, backup linebacker Baylon Spector, backup safety Taylor Rapp and punter Sam Martin, we may not know who might play until the inactive lists are announced at 5 p.m. Sunday.
Potentially, in the biggest game of the year, depth players like linebackers AJ Klein and Dorian Williams, defensive backs Dane Jackson, Kaiir Elam, Cam Lewis and Damar Hamlin, wide receiver Trent Sherfield, and punter Matt Haack could be called on for big-time snap counts.
Beating the Steelers with so many depth players is one thing; beating the Chiefs is an entirely different kettle of fish.
“It’s been the next man up, so that’s no big old thing,” defensive tackle Ed Oliver said, alluding to the fact that the Bills’ defense has been decimated all year. “We’re built for this, we can handle this, this is nothing new. You probably can only name a couple of weeks, a few weeks, when somebody, a key player, wasn’t hurt. We just have that mindset and trust in each other and we’ve worked all year for this, so we’re just here to play.”
Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana. To subscribe to Sal's newsletter, Bills Blast, which comes out twice a week during the season, please follow this link: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast.
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills need to overcome injuries, Stefon Diggs big game to beat Chiefs