For the Bills to clinch a playoff spot, fans should root for these teams in Week 17
ORCHARD PARK - That Baltimore Ravens team that smoked the San Francisco 49ers 33-19 Monday night? That’s who the Buffalo Bills need to show up Sunday afternoon when it hosts the Miami Dolphins in the biggest game on the NFL’s Week 17 schedule.
Lamar Jackson and his Ravens went on the road and undressed the 49ers who were riding a six-game losing streak, during which it looked pretty clear that they were the runaway Super Bowl favorite.
Instead, now the Ravens - with the best record in the league at 12-3 - look like the team destined to win the Super Bowl and they can take a big step in that journey by beating the Dolphins and securing the No. 1 seed in the AFC bracket. The Ravens have opened as an early three-point favorite.
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How the Buffalo Bills look in the AFC playoff picture
As that pertains to the Bills, a Miami loss and a Buffalo victory over New England Sunday would mean that the Week 18 game at Hard Rock Stadium in South Florida would decide the AFC East title.
So, besides a fourth straight Buffalo victory in the regular-season home finale at Highmark Stadium, next up on the pecking order for Bills fans is to root for a Dolphins loss in Baltimore because without that, the Bills can’t win the division and that would mean no home playoff games.
What teams should Bills fans root for in Week 17: Scenario 1
First things first, though, and that’s making sure the Bills clinch at least a wild-card playoff berth and the easiest path to do so is this: Beat the Patriots and have two of three of the Steelers, Bengals and Jaguars lose.
Sunday, Steelers at Seahawks, 4:25 p.m.
Pittsburgh did the 9-6 Bills a big favor last week by blowing out the Bengals because that knocked Cincinnati - a team that owns a head-to-head tiebreaker on Buffalo - a game behind in the conference standings at 8-7, tied with the Steelers, Colts, and Texans.
But now the tables are reversed and the Bills need the Steelers to lose, and that’s certainly a possibility. They have to travel to Seattle (8-7) and the Seahawks are in their own battle to make the playoffs on the NFC side. Their big comeback win at Tennessee catapulted the Seahawks into the seventh seed, but they are just one game ahead of the Vikings, Falcons, Packers and Saints so they are desperate to keep winning.
Lumen Field has always been a tough place for visiting teams and this season is no different. The Seahawks are 5-2 at home and one of the losses was to the 49ers. They have quality home wins over the Browns and Eagles. Go Seahawks.
Sunday: Bengals at Chiefs, 4:25 p.m.
The best thing that could have happened for the Bills regarding this matchup was the Chiefs losing Monday to the Raiders because they still haven’t clinched the AFC West. Thus, they really need to defeat Cincinnati to get that taken care of.
While they have not played well down the stretch with losses in three of their last four games, one would have to assume Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and Taylor Swift’s boyfriend will get it figured out and outscore Jake Browning and the Bengals. At least you would think.
The tricky part about this game is that if you believe the Bills are destined to win the AFC East, you’d actually root for the Bengals because that would knock the Chiefs below Buffalo in the conference seeding and could mean the difference between playing a potential division round game in Buffalo or Kansas City.
But clinching a postseason berth is the first priority right now so you want to get rid of the Bengals. Therefore, blasphemous as it may be, and because it’s part of the clinching scenario, it has to be: Go Chiefs.
Sunday: Panthers at Jaguars, 1 p.m.
If one of those two games doesn’t go Buffalo’s way, the third game in this clinching scenario involves Jacksonville losing to the 2-13 Panthers. On the surface, that seems highly unlikely, but the Jaguars have been awful during their four-game losing streak so anything is possible.
They looked like they would coast to the AFC South title and now they’re in a three-way tie with the Colts and Texans at 8-7, though they control their destiny. If they beat the woeful Panthers and then go to Tennessee and win in Week 18, they will clinch the division.
Here’s where this gets interesting. Jacksonville holds a head-to-head tiebreaker based on its victory over Buffalo in London. Thus, the Jaguars winning the AFC South would keep them out of the wild-card mix and that’s good because there’s no guarantee the Bills will win their last two and steal the AFC East. There’s a decent chance they won’t win in Miami and they will be in the wild-card chase.
So, if the Steelers and Bengals both lose to get the Bills into the playoffs, I’d say root for the Jaguars. However, if the Steelers or Bengals win, then the decision on this Jaguars game is obvious. Go Panthers.
What teams should Bills fans root for in Week 17: Scenario 2
The second playoff clinching scenario for Buffalo is a little tougher because it involves three teams needing to lose as opposed to two. In this one, the Texans, Colts and either the Bengals or Steelers must lose to get Buffalo into the tournament in Week 17. Here’s a look at those games.
Sunday, Titans at Texans, 1 p.m.
Houston is tied atop the AFC South but it currently sits third in the division because of its division record which is 2-2. The Jaguars are 4-1 and the Colts 3-2.
The Texans are expected to get quarterback C.J. Stroud back this week, but if they lose at home to Tennessee, the Jaguars beat the Panthers, and the Colts beat the Raiders, Houston is essentially eliminated, so that’s one less team for the Bills to contend with.
Even if the Texans beat Tennessee at home, and the Jaguars and Colts both lose, Houston’s playoff chances are only 52%. This is simple. The Texans are a possible threat to the Bills, the Titans are not. Go Titans.
Sunday, Raiders at Colts, 1 p.m.
The Colts suffered a crushing loss at Atlanta last week because had they won that game, they’d be sitting in first place in the AFC South. Instead, now they have to contend with the Raiders who are coming off a 63-21 blowout of the Chargers and a huge 20-14 upset in Kansas City which delayed the Chiefs’ clinching of the AFC West.
The Colts will start Sunday with a 55% chance to make the playoffs while the Raiders are only at 14%, and if the Raiders lose, they are eliminated. Even if Las Vegas wins, as long as Buffalo beats New England, the Raiders can’t surpass the Bills in the standings.
However, if Indy beats the Raiders and then beats the Texans in Week 18, also at home, their chances to make the playoffs soar to 97% and they could move ahead of Buffalo in the wild-card seeding. Go Raiders.
Sunday, Chargers at Broncos, 4:25 pm.
Denver’s playoff chances were crushed when it lost to the Patriots so this game really doesn’t mean all that much. But on the off chance that Denver - which also owns a head-to-head tiebreaker on Buffalo - can win on the road at Los Angeles and Las Vegas, and also gets plenty of help, then the choice here is obvious. Go Chargers.
Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana and on Threads @salmaiorana1. To subscribe to Sal's newsletter, Bills Blast, which comes out twice a week during the season, please follow this link: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills rooting interest, Week 17: Fans should cheer for these teams