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Anthony Joshua vs. Alexander Povetkin preview: Expect a one-sided fight

Anthony Joshua and Alexander Povetkin during the press conference at the Business Design Centre in London. (Getty Images)
Anthony Joshua and Alexander Povetkin during the press conference at the Business Design Centre in London. (Getty Images)

Promoter Eddie Hearn used the word “dangerous” to describe Alexander Povetkin at least six times in about a 45-minute conversation. The Russian, a 2004 Olympic super heavyweight gold medalist, has the record to back Hearn’s contention.

He’s 34-1 with 24 knockouts and held the WBA title for two years. He’s defeated Carlos Takam, Chris Byrd, Eddie Chambers and David Price and enters Saturday’s bout against IBF-WBA-WBO champion Anthony Joshua on an eight-fight winning streak.

“Obviously, it’s a very dangerous fight,” Hearn told Yahoo Sports. “We’re not worried about this fight, but we’re certainly nervous about it because Povetkin is very well-schooled. He can punch. He has a good chin. He has a good engine. He’s extremely fit. He’s experienced. These are all things that might not work in the favor of Anthony Joshua. Without question, this is a dangerous opponent.”

What are the odds on Joshua-Povetkin?

Oddsmakers, though, don’t think Povetkin has much of a chance against Joshua, the 2012 Olympic super heavyweight gold medalist who is 21-0 with 20 knockouts as a pro. In Las Vegas, Joshua opened as a whopping minus-1600 favorite for the bout Saturday at London’s Wembley Stadium, which will be streamed on DAZN beginning at 4:30 p.m. E.T.

Those who have bet the fight at the Westgate have tended to go with Povetkin, because the odds on Joshua were so high. So Joshua has dropped to a minus-1200 favorite and Povetkin is now plus-750.

The drop in favor of Povetkin, though, seemingly has more to do with the willingness to take a shot on an underdog than in anything bettors are seeing in Povetkin.

Why Joshua is a heavy favorite over Povetkin

Povetkin is 39 and was dropped in his last fight by Price. Povetkin’s level of competition recently has declined. Before knocking out Price in five rounds on March 31, Povetkin went the distance with Christian Hammer on Dec. 15, 2017, and with Andriy Rudenko on July 1. Neither have any significant wins on their records and are more opponents than legitimate contenders. The only fighter Povetkin has faced that is remotely in Joshua’s league was Wladimir Klitschko, who won a wide unanimous decision over Povetkin in 2013.

Joshua, who stopped Klitschko in a compelling fight last year, is just rounding into his prime.

Anthony Joshua (R) and Wladimir Klitschko in action during their heavyweight title bout at Wembley Stadium on April 29, 2017, in London. (Getty Images)
Anthony Joshua (R) and Wladimir Klitschko in action during their heavyweight title bout at Wembley Stadium on April 29, 2017, in London. (Getty Images)

The fight is clearly his to lose. At 28, he’s in his athletic prime and he’s gained the kind of experience he needs to deal with a veteran like Povetkin.

Though nearly everyone who spoke to Joshua wanted to ask about a potential unification fight with Deontay Wilder, he blew those questions off and insisted he’s not looking past Povetkin.

All fighters say that and it’s human nature to look ahead to a career-defining bout like the one with Wilder. But Joshua is wise beyond his years and seems to understand that without a win over Povetkin, there is no unification with Wilder.

“We both have a big heart and we can dig deep, so that always turns out for a good fight,” Joshua said. “The one who’s toughest will come out victorious. When I look at his weight, he’s one of the lighter heavyweights, but that means he’s got a lot of speed and is a quick fighter. But I train against amateur guys that are just as quick as him. … With a good fight, I’ll always find a way. Povetkin is one of my toughest challengers to date, so that’s where my focus has been.”

How Joshua-Povetkin should play out

The key for Joshua will be to keep a high pace and to keep a jab in Povetkin’s face. Joshua has a four-inch height advantage and a seven-inch reach advantage, and simply needs to keep Povetkin on the outside on the end of his jab.

At Povetkin’s age, he’ll need to slow the fight down and smother Joshua, limiting his output as well as the distance between them.

Joshua says he won’t mind if it is a slugfest, though that should be obvious because he’s a much harder puncher.

“I’ve come to a stage now where I have a deep world and my heart’s big,” Joshua said. “In sparring, I’ve tested myself time and time again. My coaches wonder what I’m doing in sparring, so sometimes I’ll tell them to hit me because I know how to throw punches. I know how to fight, but the question is what I can take when it comes back.

“So with Povetkin, I’m completely focused, but also focused on having a good scrap, and don’t mind coming away with a black eye and a cut nose because I want to give a bit to take a bit.”

Povetkin dutifully noted that though he’s 39, he feels like he’s 25 and said he’s in the best shape of his career. But he’s looked slower in his last few fights and hasn’t shown the kind of chin he’ll need to stand up to Joshua.

Expect Joshua to pump the jab repeatedly to slow Povetkin and then catch him with a right.

Joshua predicted an eighth-round stoppage, but if he’s as active as he says he’ll be, the end should come sooner.

Look for Joshua to catch Povetkin and stop him in the fourth round of a one-sided fight.

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