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Alabama basketball vs UNC prediction: Who has edge in 2024 NCAA Tournament?

SPOKANE, Wash. — Alabama basketball will look to score a victory over North Carolina in the Sweet 16 of March Madness.

The NCAA Tournament bracket 2024 has put the Crimson Tide against the Tar Heels. The two teams will face each other on Thursday in Los Angeles with a spot in the Elite 8 on the line. Alabama coach Nate Oats has never made an Elite 8 with the Crimson Tide before.

Alabama is fresh off a win over No. 12 seed Grand Canyon in the Round of 32 in March Madness. The Crimson Tide also beat No. 13 seed Charleston in the first round.

UNC, the No. 1 seed in the West region, is fresh off a convincing victory over Michigan State on Saturday, beating the Spartans 85-69. The Tar Heels also beat No. 16 seed Wagner 90-62 in the first round.

Who will advance to the Elite 8? Here's a scouting report and score prediction of the March Madness matchup between Alabama (23-11) and UNC (29-7).

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Projected starting lineup for UNC vs Alabama basketball

Guard Elliot Cadeau (freshman): 6-foot-1, 180 pounds. Averages: 7.3 points, 2.2 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.1 blocks, 1.8 turnovers.

Guard RJ Davis (senior): 6-foot, 180 pounds. Averages: 21.3 points, 3.6 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.2 blocks, 1.5 turnovers.

Forward Cormac Ryan (senior): 6-foot-5, 195 pounds. Averages: 11.3 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.7 steals, 0.4 blocks, 1.2 turnovers.

Forward Harrison Ingram (junior): 6-foot-7, 235 pounds. Averages: 12.2 points, 8.8 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.4 blocks, 1.4 turnovers.

Center Armando Bacot (senior): 6-foot-11, 240 pounds. Averages: 14.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.6 steals, 1.5 blocks, 1.6 turnovers.

UNC's rotation vs Alabama basketball

The Tar Heels run about seven players deep, with seven players averaging 12.4 minutes or more per game. Others include Seth Trimble and Jae-Lyn Withers.

How UNC stacks up with Alabama in scoring, defense and tempo

KenPom tracks adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, which are points scored and allowed per 100 possessions. UNC has a top 17 offense and defense, with its defense especially elite.

Alabama will aim to play faster than UNC but not by much. KenPom measures the adjusted tempo statistic based on the number of possessions per 40 minutes.

Adjusted offensive efficiency:

UNC: 119 (17th nationally)

Alabama: 125.1 (4th)

Adjusted defensive efficiency:

UNC: 93.2 (6th nationally)

Alabama: 102.4 (102nd)

Tempo

UNC: 70.7 (41st nationally)

Alabama: 72.9 (8th)

Alabama vs UNC prediction: March Madness Sweet 16

UNC 88, Alabama 83: If the guards perform like they did against Grand Canyon, the Crimson Tide will have a shot. Pair its usual good shooting with that kind of defensive effort, and Alabama can upset UNC. However, the Tar Heels will present more of an offensive threat than Grand Canyon did. And the UNC defense is also elite. The Crimson Tide will give the Tar Heels a tough game, but in the end, UNC outlasts Alabama for the victory.

Nick Kelly is the Alabama beat writer for The Tuscaloosa News, part of the USA TODAY Network, and he covers Alabama football and men's basketball. Reach him at nkelly@gannett.com or follow him @_NickKelly on X, the social media app formerly known as Twitter.

This article originally appeared on The Tuscaloosa News: Alabama basketball vs UNC prediction, pick for March Madness