A rusty Justin Verlander faces an uphill battle on his quest for 300 wins
The Astros starter, who has said he wants to pitch until he's 45, could be the last MLB pitcher ever to record 300 career victories
Atop the raised dirt circle that has defined his professional existence, there is only one thing left for Justin Verlander to accomplish.
The 41-year-old pitcher has three Cy Youngs and an MVP award to his name. There are two World Series rings on his fingers. He is tied for 10th on the all-time MLB strikeout list. And while there’s always another watch to buy, Verlander currently ranks as the single highest earner in MLB history at a cool $404,181,666. Five years after he throws his final pitch, Verlander will waltz into Cooperstown. His is a legacy secured.
The only thing left — besides, of course, another parade with the Astros — is the quest for 300 career wins.
Verlander, currently at 260 victories, would become just the 25th pitcher to reach that shimmering peak. More importantly, to both the scope of baseball history and Verlander himself, he would likely become the last player to ever reach 300 wins.
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For most of the 20th century, the 300-win plateau was a measuring stick for longevity and dominance among pitchers. It required a war on two fronts: baffling the world’s best hitters while simultaneously fending off Father Time. Only the best of the best could reach such heights. Not since a 45-year-old Randy Johnson, pitching for the San Francisco Giants, eluded the Washington Nationals on a rainy afternoon in 2009 has a pitcher surpassed 300 wins.
That’s because the game has changed. Bullpens are bursting at the seams with high-90s heat. Starters are pulled more quickly than ever before. Pitch counts are monitored and abided. The ever-growing postseason field means more teams are resting arms for October instead of squeezing juice from the lemon. The length of the average MLB start has dropped a full inning over the past 50 years, from 6.24 to 5.25. It’s hard to win a ballgame if you’re showering by the fifth inning.
And so Verlander, Max Scherzer (216) and Clayton Kershaw (212) are the only current big leaguers who have surpassed 200 wins. Gerrit Cole, considered one of the game’s best pitchers over the past half-decade, has “just” 151 career wins. Cole turns 34 years old this weekend. Only 18 active pitchers are beyond the 100-win mark.
Barring a change to league rules — MLB has discussed implementing a six-inning starting pitcher minimum, according to ESPN — it’s immensely unlikely that a pitcher will compile 300 wins in the next few decades.
That makes this milestone all the more enticing for Verlander. The standard will change, if it hasn’t already, as 250 wins becomes the new 300. A less-sexy number but an equally impressive milestone in context. Verlander wants to be the last pioneer of a bygone age, the brave, old man trying to fend off a hurricane with a stick. Being the last carries heft.
“I’ve dedicated my life to this game,” Verlander said last summer. “The way I relate it to is running a marathon and training your ass off for a marathon. What a disservice it would be to quit a few miles before the end after all the work I’ve put in. I’ve always said they’re going to have to claw the ball away from me.”
That doesn’t make the quest any easier.
Verlander is already the second-oldest player in MLB, behind only Boston’s Rich Hill. A torn UCL that required Tommy John surgery limited him to just one start across 2020 and 2021. This year, an inflamed shoulder pushed his season debut to late April. Then neck discomfort sidelined him from June 9 until Aug. 21. He has looked understandably rusty in his three starts since coming off the injured list. An encouraging return against Boston was followed by a pair of rough outings against Philadelphia and Cincinnati. Houston lost all three of those games.
On Labor Day, the Reds and their 25th-ranked offense tagged the three-time Cy Young winner for five earned runs in 4 2/3 innings. Verlander, for the first time in his Astros career, did not strike out a batter until the fourth inning. He walked the first three hitters of the game.
With two outs in the fifth and the game tied with runners on second and third, first-year Houston skipper Joe Espada trudged to the mound. Verlander sat at 100 pitches. He talked his way into one more batter. Slap-hitting utility man Santiago Espinal lofted a duck fart over the first baseman’s head for a single. Two runs scored. Espada retraced his steps and took the ball.
The outing raised Verlander’s season ERA to 4.52, even though he allowed just one extra-base hit. After each recent start, Verlander has emphasized that he’s still shaking off the rust, getting back up to speed as his team inches toward another October. But his performance Monday doubled as an unforgiving reminder: Securing a win in today’s MLB is outrageously difficult. The 300 milestone is a ways off. Verlander’s desires and his abilities are not as aligned as they once were.
As they say, Father Time is undefeated. The unfortunate realities of aging — neck pain, not being able to throw a fastball 98 mph — come for everyone, Hall of Famer or not. A day will come when Verlander is no longer capable of or interested in pitching at the major-league level. But in his mind, that moment is still years (multiple) in the future.
Jeff Bagwell, Hall of Fame first baseman and special adviser to Astros owner Jim Crane, mentioned Monday on the Space City Home Network broadcast that he expects the graying hurler to play after this season.
“I don’t think JV is going anywhere,” said Bagwell, who is reported to have significant sway within the Astros organization.
It’s unclear if Bagwell meant that Verlander, who is set to hit free agency this winter for just the second time in his career, is a safe bet to return to Houston or that he simply believes Verlander wants to continue pitching. The right-hander has communicated as much publicly, inferring that he’d like to play until he’s 45 years old, if able.
That works out to 10 wins a season for the next four seasons.