ORCHARD PARK - There is a natural inclination for Buffalo Bills fans to approach the 2024 season with a bit of trepidation regarding the viability of the four-time defending AFC East division champions.

We’ve been talking about this since March when the first wave of players who were so instrumental to all that success began walking out the door at One Bills Drive.

By the time the exodus was complete, the Bills were staring at gaping holes on the roster and needing to replace six long-time starters in Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Mitch Morse, Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde and Tre’Davious White, their leading 2023 sacker in Leonard Floyd, 12 other key 2023 contributors, and finally Matt Milano, who got hurt in training camp.

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That’s a lot of turnover, and when you factor in that the 53-man roster the Bills settled on as they head into the season opener Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals has 10 rookies in backup/special teams roles, and their first-place schedule is once again a meat grinder, yeah, it’s definitely easy to work yourself into believing a step back is coming this season.

Of course the Bills don’t feel that way.

“We feel confident in the group we have,” general manager Brandon Beane said. “Are we going to be a finished product (for the opener)? No, but hopefully we can hit the ground fast and have a good start and continue to get better. Very confident in our coaches and the players we have on the 53 ready to move forward.”

Added coach Sean McDermott, “It’s a new year every season and it’s a new team every year. There’s going to be some tweaks here and there because of some of the youth on our roster and some new faces, but overall we believe in what we believe in and the core of what we do.”

Having belief in the system and the culture is fine, but there is no doubt the Bills’ supremacy in the division is about to get its sternest test yet. Can they ace the exam?

Here are five critical things to watch as the Bills try to stay atop the AFC East and remain in the legitimate Super Bowl contender conversation:

1. Josh Allen has to continue being Josh Allen

A popular theme that cropped up this summer was that Allen is overrated. At the start of training camp, an anonymous NFL executive said that to ESPN, which prompted Beane to respond, “There are idiots everywhere.” Then last week, 11 out of 103 players polled for another ESPN story – are you sensing a silly narrative here? – said he was overrated.

Yes, there are idiots everywhere.

Allen is still among the elite at the quarterback position, and while he no longer has a true No. 1 receiver in Diggs, the Bills have revamped the position with a diverse group of players who should be able to excel as long as Allen continues to play the way he has the previous four years.

If you were starting an NFL franchise, you would be committing a sin if you didn’t pick Allen, Patrick Mahomes or Joe Burrow as your starting quarterback. Yes, there are certainly others in the running, but based on track record, achievement, and potential in the near future, it’s those three. At least it should be.

2. Taking pressure off Josh Allen

Allen shoulders a huge burden in the Buffalo offense, but offensive coordinator Joe Brady needs to lessen the load a bit, and there are a couple ways to do it.

First, the Bills need to wean Allen out of the running game. This doesn’t mean that Brady puts a governor on him because he’s such a threat with his legs and you can’t take all of that away from the attack, but the bulk of his attempts should come on improvised scrambles instead of designed runs.

This is where James Cook, Ty Johnson and Ray Davis and the offensive line come in. They need to run effectively to put the offense in manageable down and distance situations because there were times last year when first- and second-down runs were problematic and it was a testament to Allen’s brilliance that the Bills still finished No. 1 in the NFL in third-down conversion rate at 49.3%.

Second, Brady needs to incorporate more easy button throws for Allen, regardless of down and distance. Cook caught 44 of 53 targets last year for 445 yards, which was decent production, though he also had some highly notable drops mixed in. If he cleans that up, he can be dangerous, and when Davis and Johnson get into the game, they need to be available for Allen as well.

And in receivers Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel and Keon Coleman, and tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox, Allen has five targets who seem to do their best work in the short to intermediate areas, which means the Bills should be capable of putting together lengthy move-the-chains possessions, a tactic that is growing in popularity around the NFL because of how most defenses make taking away the downfield chunk plays their biggest goal.

3. Dorian Williams needs to make a leap

With Milano out most of the season, Williams is now on the spot and while it’s asking a lot for him to be this year’s version of Terrel Bernard, he at least needs to be competent and productive contributor who develops into a three-down player so the Bills can stay with their preferred nickel defense,

Bernard was a 2022 third-round pick who barely played as a rookie, then stepped into the big void left by Tremaine Edmunds and played at a Pro Bowl level in 2023. He was one of the biggest stories of the season, and now Williams has a chance to replicate that.

He’s also a third-round pick, and he actually played more on defense as rookie than Bernard did so he has something to build from. Obviously, he was inconsistent and blew his chance to hold on to the starting job last year, and that created issues late in the season when the Bills had to rely on A.J. Klein and Baylon Spector.

If Williams comes through, that’s a major plus for a defense that is certainly skewing younger and more inexperienced.

4. Find safety at the safety position

There’s a reason why the position is called safety: The guys back there have to prevent catastrophes from happening in the form of game-changing big plays. For seven years, the Bills have been among the very best in the NFL at preventing those plays because they had Poyer and Hyde patrolling the back end.

Last year, even with Poyer and Hyde aging, the Bills allowed just one pass play of at least 40 yards, fewest in the NFL, and their 44 completions of at least 20 yards were tied for the third-fewest. In 2019 and 2021 they allowed the fewest completions of at least 20 yards.

Now they are undergoing a massive change in 2024 as Taylor Rapp and (fill in the blank) will be in charge of keeping things in front of them. Rapp was the third safety last season and his primary playing time came when the Bills went to a dime defense as a way to overcome the loss of Milano in Week 5.

They couldn’t trust linebackers Williams, Spector, Klein and Tyrel Dodson on passing downs and Rapp was the best solution. But now Rapp is a full-time starter, and he started 48 of 57 games during his four years for the Rams so he should be perfectly capable of holding up his responsibilities.

It’s the other spot that is a concern. Free agent Mike Edwards was supposed to be the lead man, but all he’s done since he signed with Buffalo is recover from injuries, so he’s a wild card. Rookie Cole Bishop is not ready to start, and Damar Hamlin, an adequate player who probably should be a backup, might be the default option, at least against the Cardinals.

5. Tyler Bass has to be reliable

The Bills can deny it all they want, but their kicker has a confidence problem. The end of last season was a disaster for Bass, and this summer hasn’t done much to calm the nerves of Bills fans.

This year, the gap between the Bills and the rest of the AFC East is as tight as it has been since Allen ascended to superstar status in 2020. In fact, there are many who believe the Bills’ time as division king will end and there seems to be an even split on whether the Jets or the Dolphins will win the AFC East.

Perhaps that’s true, but one very important way for the Bills to fend off the competition is for Bass to be nails because Buffalo is going to find itself in a whole bunch of close games this year, games that might be decided by a made or missed field goal.

Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for four decades including 35 years as the full-time beat writer for the D&C, and he has written numerous books about the history of the team. He can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com, and you can follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana. https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Buffalo Bills could be Super Bowl contenders if these 5 things happen