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5 reasons why Kentucky can beat UGA

Oct 7, 2023; Athens, Georgia, USA; Georgia Bulldogs offensive lineman Tate Ratledge (69) blocks against Kentucky Wildcats defensive lineman Darrion Henry-Young (50) during the second half at Sanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 7, 2023; Athens, Georgia, USA; Georgia Bulldogs offensive lineman Tate Ratledge (69) blocks against Kentucky Wildcats defensive lineman Darrion Henry-Young (50) during the second half at Sanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

The Georgia Bulldogs, the No. 1 team in the nation for a third straight week, will face off against their long time SEC rival the Kentucky Wildcats in Lexington, Kentucky on Saturday.

The Bulldogs enter fresh off a domination of Tennessee Tech, winning by 45 points over the FCS Golden Eagles in a game where Carson Beck threw for five touchdown passes. The Wildcats, meanwhile, are coming off of a devastating 31-6 meltdown against South Carolina in which they struggled to find anything in the way of offense.

Georgia enters as a 24.5 point favorite in the game according to BetMGM, with the over/under set at 45.5. Here are five reasons that the Wildcats could cover that spread and perhaps even win the game on Saturday.

Wildcats are due?

Oct 7, 2023; Athens, Georgia, USA; Georgia Bulldogs running back Andrew Paul (3) goes over top of Kentucky Wildcats defensive back Jonquis Hardaway (6) for a touchdown during the second half at Sanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 7, 2023; Athens, Georgia, USA; Georgia Bulldogs running back Andrew Paul (3) goes over top of Kentucky Wildcats defensive back Jonquis Hardaway (6) for a touchdown during the second half at Sanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

This one may be a little more of a longshot, but could it just be the Wildcats' turn to beat the Bulldogs in a series that has seen the Bulldogs be unstoppable as of late?

Kentucky has now lost 14 straight games against the Bulldogs, with their last victory coming in 2009 against a Georgia team led by quarterback Joe Cox. To put that into further perspective, then-Georgia receiver A.J. Green played another season and has had a full NFL career since the Dawgs last lost to the Wildcats. With the exception of Texas A&M and Oklahoma, Kentucky has the longest amount of time that has passed since they beat UGA, and even Vanderbilt has won twice in that stretch. The Wildcats have also only lost by more than the current spread once in the last six meetings against Georgia, giving some indication to the likelihood that they could cover, along with Mark Stoops notable knack for being aware of the spread that he has showed in the past.

On paper, Georgia should beat Kentucky, and the numbers don't care about how many years it has been. But eventually, it could happen. Could it be this week that Georgia has multiple turnovers, or Kentucky's offense figures out Georgia's defense? Kirby Smart's program has a long history that would say no, but you can't fully count it out.

Brock Vandagriff

Sep 7, 2024; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats quarterback Brock Vandagriff (12) throws the ball during the third quarter against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Kroger Field. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images
Sep 7, 2024; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Kentucky Wildcats quarterback Brock Vandagriff (12) throws the ball during the third quarter against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Kroger Field. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

One on field factor that could benefit the Wildcats' cause is a quarterback who is familiar with the opposing defense, considering he practiced against them for his last three years in the sport.

Brock Vandagriff left Georgia in December after sitting behind starting quarterback Carson Beck for the 2024 season. Vandagriff was a top five quarterback in the class of 2021, along with the likes of Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Quinn Ewers. His athletic ability has been heavily praised and he has shown flashes of strong ability in the pass and run game. However, he struggled mightily in the Wildcats' open to SEC play against the Gamecocks, going just 3 of 10 for 30 yards for a Kentucky offense held to six points. Expect Stoops and offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan to make adjustments to get Vandagriff throwing outside of the pocket more often against the Bulldogs, making Georgia's ability to contain of extreme importance in this matchup.

Given Vandagriff's experience against this team as well as the potential rebound off of a bad performance against South Carolina, he could be in for a big game against the Bulldogs on Saturday.

Dynamic ability at receiver

Nov 5, 2022; Columbia, Missouri, USA; Kentucky Wildcats wide receiver Dane Key (6) dives past Missouri Tigers defensive back Kris Abrams-Draine (14) into the end zone for a touchdown during the fourth quarter at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 5, 2022; Columbia, Missouri, USA; Kentucky Wildcats wide receiver Dane Key (6) dives past Missouri Tigers defensive back Kris Abrams-Draine (14) into the end zone for a touchdown during the fourth quarter at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports

One of the strengths of the Wildcats' offense is actually the receiving corps, despite the struggles of the passing offense against South Carolina, built off of a combination of returning production and transfer portal acquisitions.

Dane Key and Barion Brown return from last season, when they recorded 636 and 539 yards respectively, both on over 40 catches. Through the portal, the Wildcats brought in Ja'Mori Maclin from North Texas and Fred Farrier III from UAB, with Maclin particularly playing well against Southern Miss where he led Kentucky in receiving yards with 66 before being shut down last Saturday along with every other Kentucky receiver besides Key. Overall, based on name and production, Kentucky has a solid receiving corps that can stack up well with the rest of the SEC.

If the offense can operate in a way that gets Vandagriff more comfortable, allowing him to get the ball out quickly to his playmakers on the perimeter, the Wildcats could significantly increase their offensive output this Saturday against a Georgia secondary that has played well but remains inexperienced.

Solid defense

Nov 19, 2022; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Georgia Bulldogs linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson (10) and linebacker Smael Mondon Jr. (2) celebrates during the first quarter against the Kentucky Wildcats at Kroger Field. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 19, 2022; Lexington, Kentucky, USA; Georgia Bulldogs linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson (10) and linebacker Smael Mondon Jr. (2) celebrates during the first quarter against the Kentucky Wildcats at Kroger Field. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports

Kentucky has been a physical football team built around the run game and defense since Mark Stoops arrived in 2013, and that hasn't changed this season.

Despite the struggles offensively and the final score somewhat being a misrepresentation of the game, Kentucky didn't play particularly poorly on the defensive side against South Carolina, holding the Gamecocks to 13 first downs and 285 yards of offense. Deone Walker is widely thought of as a potential first round pick along the defensive line after recording 7.5 sacks a season ago, and J.J. Weaver nearly matched that with seven of his own and has been a force off the edge for UK. Jamon Dumas-Johnson, a linebacker transfer out of Georgia, is also thought of as one of the better linebackers in the nation and will have plenty of motivation facing off against his former team. The secondary returns a great deal of experience from a season ago, anchored by cornerback Maxwell Hairston, who had 66 tackles and five interceptions in 2023.

If the Kentucky defense can do what Clemson's tried but failed to consistently do in week one and temper down the Georgia offensive attack, a cover could be likely, and a win isn't out of the question for the Wildcats.

The pressure is on and Kentucky is desparate

ATHENS, GA - OCTOBER 19: Head coach Mark Stoops of the Kentucky Wildcats speaks with Head coach Kirby Smart of the Georgia Bulldogs following a game at Sanford Stadium on October 19, 2019 in Athens, Georgia. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
ATHENS, GA - OCTOBER 19: Head coach Mark Stoops of the Kentucky Wildcats speaks with Head coach Kirby Smart of the Georgia Bulldogs following a game at Sanford Stadium on October 19, 2019 in Athens, Georgia. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)

The top reason is a simple one to understand: fans in Lexington are getting restless with this football program and need to be given a reason to believe, or the road could begin to run out.

Stoops is the longest tenured coach in the SEC, having taken over for Joker Phillips in 2013. Since then, he has taken a program that was consistently at the bottom of the SEC to a consistent top half team in the conference. However, Stoops' success peaked with 10-3 records in 2018 with an NFL player-laden roster and in 2021 with Will Levis giving the Wildcats a more dynamic offense than they have had any other year under Stoops.

Since then, Kentucky has posted back-to-back 7-6 records and has given no indication of any real desire to develop the offense into something more than a run-first attack with a quarterback who merely supplements that approach. The move for Vandagriff excited fans, but that was tempered by the hiring of Bush Hamdan from Boise State, a run game based offensive coordinator arriving to a team who's offensive line has deteriorated greatly over the past few years. Add in Stoops' failed attempt to leave for Texas A&M, and the fanbase in the bluegrass state is seemingly ready to find out if the grass is greener on the other side.

If Kentucky doesn't at the very least compete well enough to cover against Georgia, then the South Carolina loss a week ago could mark the beginning of the end for a Stoops tenure that was the subject of universal praise just three years ago and now finds itself under a much more negative national and local spotlight.

This article originally appeared on Bulldogs Wire: 5 reasons why Kentucky can beat UGA