The Milwaukee Bucks are now four seasons removed from their championship campaign, and they enter the 2024-25 season coming off consecutive first-round playoff exits. The expectation surrounding the team has been to compete for titles since the parade in 2021, but as Giannis Antetokounmpo said on Sept. 30 - "First of all – conference finals or finals – we gotta get out of the first round. Let's do that."

While he isn’t wrong, simply doing that is not enough for this team.

Regardless of diminished national expectation, in-house the belief is they can contend for a championship.

Here are three reasons why the Bucks will win the NBA championship

The Big Three click together

All the focus the last year-plus has been on the pairing of point guard Damian Lillard and Antetokounmpo, but head coach Doc Rivers has rightly maintained that three-time all-star Khris Middleton needs to be in the conversation regarding the Bucks offense. The trio played 45 games and 758 minutes together last year – but only five games and 105 minutes after the all-star break under Rivers due to various injuries.

Middleton had not practiced fully during training camp and the preseason, so there likely will be early-season hiccups, but assuming they are healthy and find a rhythm with and around one another, the Bucks could have one of the most dynamic offenses in the league with few options to stop them.

More: Bucks guard Damian Lillard reflects on a transitional year in Milwaukee, looks forward to big season

The defense returns to the top half of the league

By leaning into offense with the trade for Lillard a year ago, the Bucks were going to take a step back defensively from a Jrue Holiday-led point of attack. But it doesn’t mean they can’t still turn it on and get stop when needed, and they proved under Rivers they could do it. Before the all-star break they had a 115.9 defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) and were 17^th in the league. After the break they were over two points better with a 113.2 rating, though it still ranked 17^th.

The Bucks are going to lean into their size with Brook Lopez and Antetokounmpo protecting the rim, which was a formula for some of the best defense in the league under Mike Budenholzer. This may result in opponents making more three-pointers, but playing the percentages out there has proven to be an effective season-long strategy. The team doesn’t need to have a top-five defense to advance to an NBA Finals, but they can’t be as porous as they were a year ago.

Jon Horst built the right roster

Sitting in Gainbridge Fieldhouse after the first-round loss to Indiana, Middleton bluntly said the team wasn’t good enough to overcome injuries and get out of the first round. For as promising as every preseason and trade deadline are about new acquisitions, the results proved the Bucks didn’t have the right combination of players.

The signings of Gary Trent Jr., Taurean Prince and Delon Wright, on paper, seem to fit the existing core and the head coach hand-in-glove, both from an complementary offensive standpoint and their defensive abilities. Time will tell, but having a strong eight- to nine-person rotation in the playoffs is a key to a title run.

To Antetokounmpo’s point about getting out of the first round, the Bucks have earned some of the skepticism surrounding their ability to truly contend for another championship with second-, first- and first-round exits and firing two coaches the last three seasons.

More: What a strong free agent summer means for the Milwaukee Bucks heading into next season

Three reasons why the Bucks won't win the NBA championship

They haven’t won a title since 2021, so if they were to fall short again this year here is why:

The Eastern Conference is deeper

Yes, the Boston Celtics ran roughshod over the East and the league en route to their title last year – but they had their issues with the Bucks. Boston was blown out in one game and beat Milwaukee by a total of six points in the other two contests. The Bucks can match up with the Celtics.

But we haven’t seen that in a seven-game series since 2022 because Milwaukee has lost to Miami and Indiana in the opening rounds since then, and those teams are likely going to remain in the playoff picture. Not only that, the New York Knicks are coming off a strong season and have made some (on-paper) complementary moves in acquiring Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns. And the youthful and physical Cleveland Cavaliers and Orlando Magic can give the Bucks fits in a series. Philadelphia might be a problem, also, if stars Joel Embiid and Paul George are healthy.

The playoffs are a long grind, and the East isn’t top-heavy anymore.

Age is truly a relevant number

Even though the team got younger by drafting two teenagers and signing three free-agent veterans under age 33, they remain one of the older teams in the league. Come playoff time, Brook Lopez will be 37, Damian Lillard 34, Khris Middleton and Delon Wright 33, Pat Connaughton 32, Taurean Prince 31 and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis 30.

The top-end talent is still very high but it’s a long season, and there have been a lot of minutes on those legs. Past injuries may be explained away, but they still happened, and there could be cumulative effects. It is possible that the team is not as age-defying as it believes it can be.

The Big Three aren’t healthy

Yes, every team in the NBA can say this. But the last time the Bucks had their top three stars healthy enough to play in a playoff series was … the 2021 NBA Finals. And we know how that turned out. Even if the trio of Antetokounmpo, Lillard and Middleton were to play 70 games together and be totally healthy come playoff time, it doesn’t guarantee anything either of course, but the Bucks haven’t even been able to give it a real shot the last three postseasons. And what we do know is that without their top trio together, they can’t win.

This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: 3 reasons why the Bucks will win the NBA title and 3 why they won't