2024 Fantasy Baseball Breakouts: 6 players ready to take things to the next level
One thing we will definitely not be doing today is wading into the rhetorical quagmire of sleeper vs. breakout vs. draft value vs. league-winner vs. various other overused fantasy terms.
Each fantasy league is its own unique community, featuring managers of different experience levels and tendencies. One league’s super-sleeper can be a third-round pick in another.
[Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Baseball league for the 2024 MLB season]
Today, we’re discussing six players who will generally (but not always) fall outside the top 75 picks in mixed-league drafts, all of whom have a shot to massively outproduce their ADPs. Prospects are excluded because we dealt with those guys earlier in the week.
These are certainly not obscure names, but each is a strong candidate to level up in 2024.
Christopher Morel, 2B/OF, Chicago Cubs
When Morel connects with a pitch, it is generally a loud and violent event. His out-of-the-stadium-and-over-the-street power is well-established:
Morel Moonshot! pic.twitter.com/4HjeAHcJLF
— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) June 14, 2023
At age 24, Morel hit 26 bombs for the Cubs in 107 games, plus he launched another 11 homers at Triple-A Iowa. He was one of only 18 major league batters last season to maintain a hard-hit rate of 50% or greater over 400 plate appearances, which places him in the company of guys like Judge, Shohei, Yordan, Soto, Olson and Acuña. There’s plenty of swing-and-miss to Morel’s game, but his power is undeniable. He’s working at third base this spring, giving him an additional path to regular playing time. If we get 600 plate appearances from Morel, he’s clearly capable of a 40-homer season.
Bobby Miller, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
While my official position on starting pitchers is that they are all grifters who intend to do us harm, we can’t just ignore talent and team context. It’s kinda tempting to build a starting fantasy rotation around the Dodgers’ top 3-4 starters, because A) the team is probably gonna win like 105 games and B) these pitchers are all so reasonably priced in drafts.
[2024 Fantasy Baseball Draft Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | SS | 3B | OF | SP | RP]
Miller was, of course, excellent as a rookie, going 11-4 while striking out 119 batters in 124.1 innings and delivering a WHIP of 1.10. His 3.76 ERA didn’t adequately express all the things he did well (3.51 FIP, 3.45 xERA). Miller ranked among the leaders in limiting walks (2.32 BB/9) and home runs (0.87 HR/9), which is plenty encouraging. His minor-league K-rates suggest serious strikeout potential, as you’d expect from a guy with triple-digit velocity. He’s reportedly been off-limits in trade talks and he was actually present at the free agent pitch meeting to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, which suggests LA’s front office considers him a core piece.
It’s not crazy to hope for a top-15 positional finish this year.
Eury Pérez, SP, Miami Marlins
Pérez is a gigantic flamethrowing right-hander who’s been among the most-hyped young pitchers in the game in recent seasons, and he’s still only 20 years old. He hits 98-99 mph with relative ease and his secondary pitches were ridiculously effective last year at the big league level. Opposing batters hit just .183 against his slider, .045 against his changeup and .098 against his curve (which apparently didn’t satisfy him, because he’s reshaped the pitch in the offseason). Pérez is a ridiculous talent. We don’t yet know where the team will cap his innings this season — possibly in the 150-160 range — but we can assume every frame will be of the highest quality.
Johan Rojas, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
Rojas is the sort of end-of-draft selection who might ultimately finish as a category leader. He stole 62 bases in the minors just two years ago, then swiped 44 last season while splitting time between Double-A and the majors. He didn’t appear overmatched in the big leagues, slashing .302/.342/.430 with near-flawless fielding in center. Rojas has been the subject of multiple offseason hype pieces — he added muscle, refined his swing, many hours in the cage, etc. Assuming he locks down an everyday role, he has the potential to deliver double-digit power with 40-plus steals.
Ezequiel Tovar, SS, Colorado Rockies
Just in case things somehow take a regrettable turn in your draft and you whiff at a deep position, Tovar is a still-developing young player coming off a season in which he reached double-digits in both homers and steals. Unsurprisingly, he was a significantly better hitter at Coors Field than he was on the road, but his home park is a gift that will continue to give. Tovar managed to tread water in the big leagues at the age of 21 while producing useful power/speed numbers, plus his minor league track record is full of good signs. Two years ago, he slashed .319/.387/.540 in the high minors with 14 homers and 17 steals in 71 games. He’s a legit wizard defensively, too, so he’s never leaving the lineup.
Bo Naylor, C, Cleveland Guardians
We’ve previously mentioned the fact that you are gonna need to get stolen bases from pretty much every roster spot in fantasy in 2024, given the spike in base-stealing last year. Naylor managed to swipe five bags in as many attempts last year and he’s just one season removed from stealing 20 bases in the minors, so he can easily reach double-digits as Cleveland’s primary catcher. He also hit 24 home runs last year while splitting time between the majors and Triple-A, so this is a backstop with multi-category utility, buried in the ranks.