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How 2023 Louisville basketball season compares to worst Power 5 teams over last 20 years

brooks holton, louisville courier journal
·6 min read

GREENSBORO, N.C. — The 2022-23 Louisville men's basketball season begged the question. Even head coach Kenny Payne acknowledged it.

How bad was this season?

"Next year will be better," Payne said Feb. 1 after the Cardinals beat Georgia Tech for their first ACC win. "I don't know how it could be worse."

Year 1 of the Payne era will, in fact, go down as the worst in U of L's 109-year history. It came to an end Tuesday with a program-record 28th loss to Boston College in the first round of the ACC Tournament at Greensboro Coliseum.

Yet the question remains — could it have been worse? The answer is yes, but not by much.

Louisville head coach Kenny Payne reacts during the second half of the Cards' 71-54 loss to Virginia Tech.
Louisville head coach Kenny Payne reacts during the second half of the Cards' 71-54 loss to Virginia Tech.

Early season musings: Louisville basketball can't catch a break. Could the Cards even beat another winless team?

Only three Division I schools have more losses and fewer wins than Louisville (4-28, 2-19 ACC) during the 2022-23 season. Of those bottom dwellers, just one plays in a power conference.

That would be California (3-28, 2-18 Pac-12).

The Golden Bears don't begin postseason play until Wednesday and therefore still have a chance to pass U of L in the win column with a run in its conference tournament. As it stands, Cal (261st) already has an edge over the Cardinals (292nd) on college basketball statistician Ken Pomeroy's adjusted efficiency rankings.

But what does that mean, exactly?

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As Pomeroy details on his website, KenPom.com, adjusted efficiency (AdjEM) subtracts a team's defensive efficiency (the number of points allowed per 100 possessions) from its offensive efficiency (the number of points scored per 100 possessions) to determine by how much a team would outscore the average Division I opponent.

Louisville, for example, ranks 255th in the country with an offensive efficiency of 102; its defensive efficiency is 112.2, which ranks 313th. When you subtract the offensive from defensive, you get its adjusted efficiency: -10.17, meaning the average opponent is likely to score 10.17 points per game more than the Cardinals.

Cal's adjusted efficiency is -7.97.

A look back through Pomeroy's database over the past two decades doesn't do Louisville any favors, either. Of the 21 power-conference programs that finished with the fewest wins among their contemporaries dating back to the 2001-02 season, only two had fewer wins: Oregon State in 2021-22 and Iowa State in 2020-21. Only one fared worse than the Cardinals in adjusted efficiency. That would be the 2015-16 Rutgers team, which posted an adjusted efficiency of -10.63 during its 7-25 (1-17 Big Ten) campaign.

A disappointed senior Louisville guard El Ellis listens as head coach Kenny Payne talks about a play late in the second half where Louisville lost 71-54 to Virginia Tech Tuesday night at the KFC Yum Center. The Cards finished 4-26 overall, 2-17 in the ACC. Feb. 28, 2023
A disappointed senior Louisville guard El Ellis listens as head coach Kenny Payne talks about a play late in the second half where Louisville lost 71-54 to Virginia Tech Tuesday night at the KFC Yum Center. The Cards finished 4-26 overall, 2-17 in the ACC. Feb. 28, 2023

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It's also worth noting that the ACC is in the midst of a historically down year. The league ranks fifth in the Power 5 and seventh in the country when you look at the adjusted efficiency of a team that's expected to go .500 in conference play:

  1. Big 12 (+18.36)

  2. Big Ten (+14.62)

  3. SEC (+13.31)

  4. Big East (+13.02)

  5. Pac-12 (+12.07)

  6. Mountain West (+10.39)

  7. ACC (+8.06)

Here's a look at the power-conference schools whose performances over the past decade also live in infamy.

Note: In the event two teams from power conferences finished with the same amount of losses, The Courier Journal deferred to the one with the lowest KenPom rating.

2021-22, Oregon State

  • Final record: 3-28 (1-19 Pac-12)

  • Final KenPom AdjEM: -5.36 (233rd of 359 teams)

2020-21, Iowa State

  • Final record: 2-22 (0-18 Big 12)

  • Final KenPom AdjEM: -0.14 (171st of 357 teams)

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2019-20, Nebraska

  • Final record: 7-25 (2-18 Big Ten)

  • Final KenPom AdjEM: +0.64 (162nd of 353 teams)

2018-19, California

  • Final record: 8-23 (3-15 Pac-12)

  • Final KenPom AdjEM: -6.84 (241st of 353 teams)

2017-18, California

  • Final record: 8-24 (2-16 Pac-12)

  • Final KenPom AdjEM: -7.27 (244th of 351 teams)

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2016-17, Oregon State

  • Final record: 5-27 (1-17 Pac-12)

  • Final KenPom AdjEM: -8.72 (264th of 351 teams)

2015-16, Rutgers

  • Final record: 7-25 (1-17 Big Ten)

  • Final KenPom AdjEM: -10.63 (279th of 351 teams)

2014-15, Missouri

  • Final record: 9-23 (3-15 SEC)

  • Final KenPom AdjEM: -2.09 (192nd of 351 teams)

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2013-14, Boston College

  • Final record: 8-24 (4-14 ACC)

  • Final KenPom AdjEM: +2.44 (142nd of 351 teams)

2012-13, Auburn

  • Final record: 9-23 (3-15 SEC)

  • Final KenPom AdjEM: -2.83 (197th of 347 teams)

2011-12, Southern California

  • Final record: 6-26 (1-17 Pac-12)

  • Final KenPom AdjEM: -4.69 (220th of 345 teams)

2010-11, Wake Forest

  • Final record: 8-24 (1-15 ACC)

  • Final KenPom AdjEM: -8.64 (259th of 345 teams)

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2009-10, Iowa

  • Final record: 10-22 (4-14 Big Ten)

  • Final KenPom AdjEM: -0.36 (174th of 347 teams)

2008-09, Indiana

  • Final record: 6-25 (1-17 Big Ten)

  • Final KenPom AdjEM: -3.92 (209th of 344 teams)

2007-08, Oregon State

  • Final record: 6-25 (0-18 Pac-10)

  • Final KenPom AdjEM: -7.91 (246th of 341 teams)

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2006-07, Arizona State

  • Final record: 8-22 (2-16 Pac-10)

  • Final KenPom AdjEM: +1.83 (143rd of 336 teams)

2005-06, Baylor

  • Final record: 4-13 (4-12 Big 12)

  • Final KenPom AdjEM: +0.18 (154 out of 334 teams)

2004-05, Penn State

  • Final record: 7-23 (1-15 Big Ten)

  • Final KenPom AdjEM: -5.44 (216th of 330 teams)

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2003-04, Baylor

  • Final record: 8-21 (3-13 Big 12)

  • Final KenPom AdjEM: -6.63 (232nd of 326 teams)

2002-03, Penn State

  • Final record: 7-21 (2-14 Big Ten)

  • Final KenPom AdjEM: -4.58 (209th of 327 teams)

2001-02, Texas A&M

  • Final record: 9-22 (3-13 Big 12)

  • Final KenPom AdjEM: -4.73 (213th of 327 teams)

Reach Louisville men's basketball reporter Brooks Holton at bholton@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter at @brooksHolton.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: 2022-23 Louisville basketball vs. worst Power 5 teams in last 20 years