2023-24 Fantasy Basketball: The hardest players to rank this season — where should you draft them?
By Alex Barutha, RotoWire
Special to Yahoo Sports
Ranking players in fantasy basketball is a complicated task, and a myriad of factors go into the process. Certain players are more complex to assess than others, and their perceived value can be highly polarizing. Confounding factors generally include unclear roles and injury risk. Depending on how things play out, some players could be labeled as both a sleeper and a bust at their ADP.
Below are some of the most challenging players to rank ahead of the 2023-24 season.
Unclear Roles
Ben Simmons, Nets (ADP: 126.3)
Here we go again. Injuries and mental health have prevented Simmons from playing more than 58 games in a season since 2018-19, the lowlight being sitting out all of 2021-22. But even with an underwhelming 42 appearances with the Nets last season at 26.3 minutes per game, Simmons was, at times, worth rostering in 12-team formats. If he can reach 30-plus minutes and make marginal improvements, he'll need to be rostered in every 12-teamer. The issue is how many "ifs" there are regarding Simmons.
Russell Westbrook, Clippers (ADP: 109.9)
Westbrook is undoubtedly better in points leagues than category leagues, but he's worth considering in both formats. His combined tenure for both Los Angeles teams last season was a lowlight of his career, but his playoff efforts for an undermanned Clippers squad helped land him a new contract. It's still not out of the question that he wears out his welcome, though, and the Clippers have a relatively potent guard rotation with Terance Mann, Bones Hyland and Norman Powell also available. The potential variance in Westbrook's role makes him a problematic assessment.
Miles Bridges, Hornets (ADP: 99.5)
Bridges missed last season and will be suspended for the first 10 games of 2023-24 due to a felony domestic violence charge. He's back with the Hornets on the qualifying offer, meaning Charlotte has little committed to him, and he could easily be gone next season. But the Hornets are trying to win games, and Bridges was the team's second-best player two years ago when he averaged 20.2 points, 7.0 rebounds and 3.8 assists. You can draft him as late as pick 100 in some leagues, and we've seen third-round upside out of him. But he has competition for minutes from Gordon Hayward, P.J. Washington, Brandon Miller and Cody Martin, and sitting out a full year may result in early-season rust.
John Collins, Jazz (ADP: 103.5)
After three consecutive seasons of a declining role, Collins was finally dealt by the Hawks to the Jazz. While he probably doesn't have the upside for 22 points, 10 rebounds and 1.5 blocks as he accomplished in 2019-20, there should be some room to grow in Utah's ball-sharing offense from the 13.1 points, 6.5 rebounds and 1.0 blocks he posted last year. However, Collins has some positional overlap with Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler, Kelly Olynyk and rookie Taylor Hendricks. Even though a bounce-back season is possible, his minutes floor might be as low as ever.
Chris Paul, Warriors (ADP: 72.4)
Paul's role is difficult to assess. He's entering his age-38 season and is joining a team with an established Hall of Fame point guard in Stephen Curry. Plus, Golden State is the epitome of a ball-sharing, off-ball movement team, and CP3 has historically controlled his team's offenses himself. Anywhere between 26 and 32 minutes feels reasonable, and he hasn't been especially healthy throughout his career either.
James Harden (ADP: 28.6) and Tyrese Maxey (ADP: 57.1), 76ers
Harden's draft stock fell after saying he would not play for a Daryl Morey team. Now, things have become more convoluted, with Harden showing up to training camp and not causing disruptions. He didn't play in the preseason opener, so there's plenty still up in the air. We know Harden is a first-round talent, but how high can you draft someone with these concerns, especially as he enters his age-34 season?
Maxey's fantasy value is tied to Harden. If the veteran sits out, Maxey becomes the team's primary playmaker in the backcourt and should shoot up draft boards.
Bradley Beal, Suns (ADP: 60.5)
Beal was the Wizards' No. 1 option over the past four seasons, though he pulled back his usage over the past two years, averaging 23.2 points and 6.0 assists with a 29.9 USG%. Now, he's definitively the third option in Phoenix. He's been worth a fifth-round selection each of the past two seasons. That probably won't stick, but he still has quite a high floor, given his talent. In Phoenix's first preseason game, Beal had 23.1 USG%, though the 14-minute sample is obviously tiny.
Injury Risks
LeBron James (ADP: 24.6) and Anthony Davis (ADP: 12.5), Lakers
James hasn't played more than 67 games since 2017-18 (55.6 average), and Davis hasn't played more than 62 since that same campaign (50.5 average). James turns 39 years old this December, and Davis turns 31 in March. We all know their upside, but if you're drafting either player, it's probably best to back that up with another player from the Lakers later in drafts.
Kawhi Leonard (ADP: 27.4) and Paul George (ADP: 31.0), Clippers
Like LeBron and AD on the Lakers, we need to break down this duo's combined absences. The 32-year-old Leonard hasn't played more than 60 games since 2016-17 and missed all of 2021-22 (38.3 average), while George hasn't played more than 56 games since 2018-19 (47.3 average). Leonard is a first-round talent, and George is a second-round talent, but you should probably wait a round longer to take the gamble.
Zion Williamson (ADP: 57.1) and Brandon Ingram (ADP: 51.9), Pelicans
Nobody is surprised to see Williamson here. He's averaging 28.5 games played for his four-year career, missing all of 2021-22 due to a foot injury. However, Ingram has dodged the injury-prone label despite missing tons of time throughout his career. Ingram hasn't played over 62 games since his 2016-17 rookie season. Both players typically go in the fifth or sixth round, which is appropriate given the risk, but they're still tricky to rank.
Kevin Durant, Suns (ADP: 11.4)
Since tearing his Achilles and missing all of 2019-20, Durant is averaging just 45.6 games played. At 35 years old with other potent weapons Devin Booker and Bradley Beal around him, don't be surprised if there are plenty of scheduled rest days or decreased minutes from the 35.6 per game he saw last season. He is currently being selected around the first-round turn of most drafts, but fantasy managers need to be aware of the risk.
Kyrie Irving, Mavericks (ADP: 12.8)
Even if you believe Irving's personal absences are a thing of the past, it's worth noting the 31-year-old hasn't been exceptionally healthy throughout his career. Before he got to Brooklyn, he averaged only 63.5 games played, and he hasn't played more than 60 games in the last four campaigns. Combine his age and risk of absences with sharing the ball with Luka Dončić, and Irving is a difficult player to rank.
Entire NBA Teams
Portland Trail Blazers
The Damian Lillard trade has transformed this team. Anfernee Simons should lead the team in usage, but he won't dominate the ball. Scoot Henderson should act as Portland's primary playmaker, while Jerami Grant and Deandre Ayton both have upside for over 20 points per game, along with Simons. Shaedon Sharpe has some positive momentum, but he's the Blazers' fourth option at best. And how much will Malcolm Brogdon and Robert Williams play? We haven't even mentioned Matisse Thybulle, who could dominate reserve wing minutes. Someone may stand out, but don't be surprised if this offense is fairly egalitarian.
Houston Rockets
Fred VanVleet is now the best player on this otherwise youthful team. He should function as the primary playmaker, but will he continue seeing the 36+ minutes he was getting in Toronto? Will his usage decrease significantly based on the potential growth of Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun and Jabari Smith? How many minutes are available for Amen Thompson? There are so many questions about Houston's usage and minutes distribution that it feels challenging to rank anyone confidently.
Washington Wizards
Washington is thin in terms of high-usage players. While that should give fantasy managers some confidence in drafting Jordan Poole and Kyle Kuzma, how soon should you pull the trigger? Some managers will click Poole's name in the third and Kuzma's in the fifth. Others will want to wait until the sixth and 10th rounds, respectively. Will Daniel Gafford finally reach 30 minutes per game? How much playmaking responsibility will Tyus Jones have now that he's in a starting role? Can Deni Avdija finally make some sort of a leap? This team is probably a tank candidate down the stretch.
Boston Celtics
I'm not concerned about Jayson Tatum's usage, but everyone else on the team is on watch. Kristaps Porziņģis was great last year as a No. 2 option on Washington, but now he's more likely a co-third option with Jrue Holiday. Speaking of Holiday, he cuts into Derrick White's usage and workload, and I have minor concerns that he'll steal some touches from Jaylen Brown. I'd be looking to draft everyone besides Tatum lower than their ADPs.
Milwaukee Bucks
Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard both averaged over 30 points last season, so something probably has to give. Lillard is a better option to run the offense than Antetokounmpo, though finding the perfect balance will take time. And how is Khris Middleton affected? It would be surprising if he averaged 20 points and five assists, but it would also be surprising if he averaged just 15 and three. Can Brook Lopez put together another monster defensive season at his age? Who is starting at shooting guard? While I'd still be happy to draft Antetokounmpo in the first round and Lillard in the second, their ceilings aren't as high anymore.
Rookies Not Mentioned Above
Victor Wembanyama, Spurs (ADP: 29.2)
All rookies are tough to rank, but top picks join the NBA with massive hype and lofty expectations, so the equation needs to balance potential with reality properly — the reality being most rookies aren't great fantasy players. This question becomes even more complex in the case of Wembanyama, arguably the best prospect since LeBron James. Things are trending in the right direction. After a shaky Summer League debut, Wembanyama looked excellent in his second and final appearance. On Monday, he followed that up with a highlight-filled preseason debut against the Thunder and Chet Holmgren. Wembanyama's defensive upside alone might give him a fifth-round floor, so combine that with his offensive potential, and the third round doesn't seem so lofty. At this point, the concerns should start trending toward minutes and games played. San Antonio will presumably handle the big man with extreme caution.
Chet Holmgren, Thunder (ADP: 48.9)
Holmgren also looked fantastic in the aforementioned preseason game, posting 21 points, nine rebounds and one block in 16 minutes. It's fair to have injury concerns about Holmgren after missing all of last season with a broken foot, and his slight frame could prove detrimental against the league's biggest athletes. He also figures to be lower in the offensive pecking order than Wembanyama, potentially behind all three of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams. Still, few players possess Holmgren's shot-blocking and 3-point upside, and his absurd length will help him keep his field-goal percentage high by scoring at the rim.
Brandon Miller, Hornets (ADP: 130.0)
Miller's Summer League performances were a mixed bag, and preseason should give us more valuable information. Part of the concern with Miller is that Charlotte isn't thin for other scoring options. LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier will lead the show, and Miles Bridges could even return to form. Gordon Hayward, as injury-prone as he is, could take some minutes from Miller if the rookie is unpolished out of the gate. Both his ceiling and his floor feel unstable.
Ausar Thompson, Pistons (ADP: 137.7)
Thompson had encouraging Summer League performances, and new head coach Monty Williams accidentally played him 39 minutes during Detroit's first preseason game — an overtime loss to the Suns. We at least got a good sample, with Thompson posting 12 points, 10 rebounds, six assists and one block. His role still feels somewhat to be determined, as Cade Cunningham will run the show, Jaden Ivey should see plenty of usage, and the roster is weirdly deep for projecting to be near the bottom of the standings. But his upside as a passer, rebounder and defender should keep him in the rotation plenty, especially if coach Williams wants to cut down on the veterans' minutes.