2023-24 Fantasy Basketball: Follow the money — draft targets seeking new NBA contracts
By Juan Carlos Blanco, RotoWire
Special to Yahoo Sports
The 2024 free agency class is shaping up to be stocked with plenty of big names. Below, we’ll highlight the top players heading into contract years this season. We’ll remain focused solely on true pending unrestricted free agents, as opposed to those entering restricted free agency next summer or who have a player option for the 2024-25 campaign.
James Harden, PHI
Harden is by far the most attention-grabbing name on a list with plenty of talented players. Whether he remains eligible for unrestricted free agency by the time next summer rolls around remains to be seen, given he could sign an extension, especially if he’s able to get his trade wish granted. Uncertainty will very likely loom over The Beard’s situation for some time yet, and he’s currently set to play out this coming season on a $35.7 million player option.
Harden’s scoring has been nowhere near that of his Houston heyday while sharing time with fellow high-usage stars in Brooklyn and Philly the last couple of seasons, and it’s tough to say whether money or championships is the greater motivator for him at this point in his career. Ultimately, where the mercurial Harden takes the floor and who surrounds him will play a major role in his approach to the coming season. However, if he’s logging a starter’s workload, the stellar across-the-board numbers are virtually locked in.
Klay Thompson, GSW
Thompson played his first semi-full season since the 2018-19 campaign last year after shaking off some rust in 32 contests the year prior. The veteran sharpshooter’s overall 43.6% shooting in 2022-23 was below his career standards, but most of his struggles came from inside the arc considering he drained an impressive 41.2% of his 3-point tries. Thompson also pulled down a career-high 4.1 rebounds per contest, and although he’ll turn 34 in February, he’ll certainly be motivated to prove he deserves at least one more big payday.
Whether that’ll be with the Warriors, though, remains to be seen.
Tobias Harris, PHI
Harden is naturally the Philadelphia player on which the expiring contract spotlight shines brightest, but Harris is also due for unrestricted free agency after the coming season. The veteran forward is heading into the final year of a $180 million deal, but he’ll still be only 31 when free agency begins next summer. Therefore, Harris has plenty of motivation to score another sizable deal. His production will naturally hinge on Harden’s status, as the former posted a 23.2% usage rate and 116.3 offensive rating with The Beard off the floor last season.
Pascal Siakam, TOR
If he does indeed hit the open market, there’s no question Siakam will be one of the most sought-after free agents in his class, barring a catastrophic injury or major downturn in performance during the coming season. The 2016 first-round pick averaged a career-high 24.2 points last season to go along with 7.8 rebounds and a career-best 5.8 assists per contest. Siakam is a slightly below-average 3-point shooter (32.4%) but certainly isn’t poor by big-man standards. With Fred VanVleet now in Houston, the versatile center could certainly produce the type of numbers that would earn him a mammoth payday at age 30 next summer.
Gordon Hayward, CHA
The upcoming season will be a significant one for Hayward, who’s undeniably lost some luster over the last several seasons after never quite regaining his early-career form following a serious ankle injury on Opening Night with the Celtics back in 2017. The veteran wing did appear to be nearly back to his prior standards during his debut campaign with the Hornets in 2021-22 when he averaged 19.6 points per contest thanks to a strong 41.5% clip from 3-point range.
However, his offensive numbers have dropped in each of the subsequent campaigns. He also slumped to the second-lowest 3-point success rate of his career in 2022-23 (32.5%). With LaMelo Ball returning from injury, Miles Bridges returning from limbo and Brandon Miller arriving as the second overall pick, Hayward could struggle to maintain consistent usage. If that’s the case, Hayward’s value on the open market next summer would take a major hit.
DeMar DeRozan, CHI
It seems like just yesterday DeRozan was heading to Chicago to serve as an integral part of what appeared to be a potential championship Bulls squad. Now, he’s just one season from his Windy City tenure potentially coming to a close without even making a splash in the postseason. Despite the fact DeRozan will turn 35 by the time the 2024-25 season tips off, the talented wing is still a durable asset after playing 76 and 74 games in the past two campaigns, and he isn’t yet demonstrating any drop-off in his play.
In fact, he’s sharpened his shot over the last pair of campaigns, draining 50.4% of his attempts in each of those seasons. DeRozan will undoubtedly be motivated to carve out at least one more big contract while ideally eliciting that commitment from a legitimate contender.
Spencer Dinwiddie, BKN
Dinwiddie enjoyed an excellent start to his second act in Brooklyn following his move back to the Big Apple at the deadline last season. The veteran guard averaged 16.5 points, 9.1 assists, 4.1 rebounds and 1.1 steals across 26 appearances over 35.3 minutes per contest with the Nets, and he’ll now have a full season to operate as the primary ball handler with the same supporting cast he worked with in the second half of the 2022-23 campaign.
He averaged a career-best 20.6 points and 6.8 assists in a similar capacity with Brooklyn back in the 2019-20 season. Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson will naturally enjoy their fair share of usage, but there should be ample opportunity for Dinwiddie to make a case for a long-term home in Brooklyn or elsewhere with an accompanying lucrative contract.
Nic Claxton, BKN
Claxton appears to have timed his career trajectory with his looming free agency perfectly. The young big has consistently shown season-over-season improvement, and another year of such will certainly set him up for a handsome payday, given his ability and position. Claxton topped out at a career-high 12.6 points, 9.2 rebounds, 1.9 assists and 2.5 blocks per contest in 76 games last season while shooting a career-best 70.5%.
He’ll still be a precocious 25 years of age when free agency opens next summer, heightening his appeal. Consequently, Claxton’s motivation will undoubtedly be at an all-time high this coming season — when he’ll play out the second year of a $17.25 million deal — given the perfect storm that will await him if he hits the open market.
Buddy Hield, IND
Hield’s shooting prowess is likely to help him forge a long NBA career, even if it ends up being fairly nomadic in nature. The veteran wing projects to open his second full season in Indiana with the starting small forward role in hand, which should give him a good opportunity to approximate or exceed the 16.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, 2.8 assists and career-best 1.2 steals he posted across 31 minutes per contest in the 2022-23 campaign. Hield is finishing out a $94 million extension he signed with the Kings back in 2019, but at just 30 years old and having played at least 80 games in five of the first six non-COVID-impacted seasons of his career, he brings the bonus of durability to the bargaining table.
Markelle Fultz, ORL
While Fultz has never quite lived up to the pedigree of the No. 1 overall pick, there’s no denying the veteran guard has impressively resurrected his career in Orlando after being repeatedly besieged by injuries. Reaching the 60-game mark for only the second time in his first six seasons in 2022-23, Fultz produced a career-best 14.0 points, 5.7 assists, 3.9 rebounds and 1.5 steals while shooting 51.4% from the field and 31.0% from deep. Another campaign where he largely steers clear of the injury bug and potentially improves on his numbers yet again could yield Fultz a lucrative multi-year deal at the ripe young age of 26, especially if the offensive part of his game continues to keep pace with his already elite defensive skill set.
Jonas Valančiūnas, NOP
Valančiūnas didn’t quite extend his offensive emergence to a third consecutive season in the 2022-23 campaign, but he still finished with a solid 14.1 points per contest while averaging double-digit rebounds (10.2) for the fourth straight season. The big man’s numbers were better in both categories (17.8 PPG, 11.4 RPG) a year prior, but those notably came with Zion Williamson missing the entire 2021-22 campaign. If his frontcourt mate is back at full strength this season, Valančiūnas could have a difficult time beating last year’s numbers. However, if he manages to average a double-double for the fifth straight campaign, there should be a fair share of suitors for what would be a 32-year-old big who’s proven largely durable throughout his long career and is an unquestioned force on the glass.
Miles Bridges, CHA
Bridges is perhaps the biggest X-factor on this list, considering he last played in a regular-season game on April 10, 2022. Bridges sat out all of last season and will be suspended for the first 10 games of the coming campaign due to off-court issues, but he looked like a star in the making during his breakout 2021-22 campaign when he averaged 20.2 points, 7.0 rebounds and 3.8 assists per contest.
Naturally, rust and conditioning could be a factor early, and Bridges comes back to a squad where he’ll now likely have to operate as a bench piece, at least to open the season. Yet, it’s a virtual certainty Bridges will have plenty of incentive whenever he’s on the floor given his lack of security beyond this season.
Other noteworthy names with expiring contracts: Kyle Lowry, MIA; Mike Conley, MIN; Josh Hart, NYK
