2023-24 Fantasy Basketball Drafts: Point guard preview
By Alex Barutha, RotoWire
Special to Yahoo Sports
We are previewing every position ahead of the 2023-24 fantasy basketball season. First up, here are the point guards.
Draft Strategy
As the NBA becomes more wing-heavy — with shooting guards, small forwards and power forwards closer in size and skill than ever before — point guard is one of the few positions left with plenty of "traditional" players. Center is similar in that respect.
While assists have increased for nearly every position around the NBA, elite assist production is still dominated by point guards. Last season, 11 of the top 12 assist percentage leaders were classified as point guards on Basketball Reference. The lone exception was Nikola Jokić. Steals are also a point-guard-leaning stat, though not quite to that extent. Last season, eight of the top 15 steal percentage leaders were point guards. If you're playing in a head-to-head category league and want to win those two categories, you'll need to target point guards aggressively.
But even fantasy managers in points leagues or roto leagues will benefit from a point-guard-heavy strategy for two primary reasons.
[2023-24 Draft Tiers: PGs | SGs | SFs | PFs | Cs]
First, scaleable usage — meaning, when teammates suffer injuries, where is their usage distributed? Often, it's more for the point guard, who ends up with the ball in their hands at the end of failed possessions. Those possessions are more likely to fail if talented teammates are sidelined.
Second, direct backups. When a wing player gets injured, there are usually two or three players who can fill in with extra minutes. When a point guard gets injured, it's usually one player stepping into that vital role. Targeting reserve point guards can pay off massively if the starter gets hurt, though that may be a strategy for deeper leagues. Examples include Immanuel Quickley and De'Anthony Melton.
Before outlining my general guidelines for targeting specific point guards, I want to clarify that you should be willing to draft anyone you view as having slipped too far. For example, Kyrie Irving is not one of "my guys," but I'll take him if he's somehow there for me at pick 35. Drafting is just as much about price enforcement as it is about landing your favorite options.
With that said, here are the guidelines that lead me to my favorite point guards in Yahoo leagues this season:
Obvious potential for five+ assists and one+ steals
Not on one of the league's bottom-tier teams (Rockets, Hornets, Spurs, Pistons, Wizards, maybe Trail Blazers) in order to avoid tanking potential
Young or in prime (younger than 33)
No overarching injury concerns (a player having four+ seasons under 60 games is a red flag)
A clear top-three role within their offense
They also qualify at other positions to maximize flexibility
My Guys: Draft Targets
Tyrese Haliburton, Pacers (PG/SG)
ADP: 6.4
To the average NBA fan, the idea of Haliburton being arguably one of the five best players in fantasy probably seems wild. But he's quickly established himself as a super-efficient source of 20-and-10s, with upside for nearly two steals per game. Indiana is fully expected to run its offense through him again, and he's just 23 years old.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder (PG/SG)
ADP: 5.7
Gilgeous-Alexander was quietly fifth place in MVP voting last season, proving his upside as one of the best two-way guards in the NBA. As the Thunder improve around him, he may not need to score 31.4 PPG again, but there could be more assists or better efficiency. He's still clearly the team's No. 1 option.
Donovan Mitchell, Cavaliers (PG/SG)
ADP: 18.0
Mitchell is coming off his fourth consecutive All-Star season and reached a new high of 28.3 PPG. He's more of a shooting guard within Cleveland's offense but remains a skilled passer and defender. If Darius Garland suffers an injury, it means more playmaking responsibilities for Mitchell.
Dejounte Murray, Hawks (PG/SG)
ADP: 32.7
Atlanta's two-point-guard offense with Murray and Trae Young has led to mixed results. Though Murray took a step back compared to his time running the show in San Antonio in 2021-22, he was still plenty productive as a two-way guard, averaging 20.5 points, 6.1 assists and 1.5 steals per game. He's also first in line for more usage if Young suffers an injury.
Jamal Murray, Nuggets (PG/SG)
ADP: 42.8
Murray looked just fine after missing all of 2021-22 due to a torn ACL and was excellent in the playoffs on the way to the Nuggets' 2023 title. The 26-year-old has room to grow and just averaged a career-high 6.2 assists per game. He's the clear second option in Denver's offense.
Bradley Beal, Suns (PG/SG)
ADP: 60.5
Who doesn't have concerns about Beal's role, age and recent injury history? But I'm still happy to invest in the 30-year-old around pick 65 as the third option in Phoenix. Kevin Durant hasn't been especially healthy lately and is older, too, so there will be plenty of nights where he misses time and Beal steps into the No. 2 role.
CJ McCollum, Pelicans (PG/SG)
ADP: 82.1
McCollum has no flash to his game, but he looked good as New Orleans' starting point guard last season. He's the team's No. 3 option behind Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram, who are both injury risks. You're looking at minimal upside with McCollum, but he's a great high-floor option late in drafts.
Markelle Fultz, Magic (PG/SG)
ADP: 96.2
Orlando played best when Fultz was available last season. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are getting all the attention, but Fultz is coming off an under-appreciated campaign where he averaged 14.0 points on 51.4 FG%, 5.7 assists and 1.5 steals in 29.6 minutes per game. Fantasy managers shouldn't worry about Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs or Anthony Black (more on him later) stealing his minutes.
Draft Fades
Steph Curry, Warriors (PG)
ADP: 6.6
Curry's age and injury history make me think twice about drafting him at pick six or seven. He hasn't reached 70 games played since 2016-17, and he's entering his age-35 season. He can still put up top-five, maybe even top-three, numbers per game, but it's difficult for me to pull the trigger.
Kyrie Irving, Mavericks (PG)
ADP: 12.9
Missed games are a concern, and not just due to personal reasons. Even before that dynamic came about, Irving was an injury-prone player. In his 12-year career, he's played 70-plus games just three times, and he's played fewer than 60 games more than he's cleared 60 games. Combine that with Irving playing next to one of the highest-usage superstars in the NBA, and I'm proceeding cautiously relative to his ADP.
Chris Paul, Warriors (PG)
ADP: 72.0
Paul is one of the oldest players in the league, has an extensive injury history and his role this season is cloudy. I don't think he'll play 20 minutes per game, but it wouldn't be shocking if he played 27 minutes and missed 30 games, plus decreased usage. Drafting him at pick 70 has a chance to be great value, but I don't like the odds.
Rookies
Scoot Henderson, Trail Blazers (PG)
ADP: 97.4
We saw only 21 minutes out of Henderson in Summer League before he suffered a minor shoulder injury and was shut down. He looked impressive, though, recording 15 points, six assists, five rebounds and one steal. With Damian Lillard now in Milwaukee and Jrue Holiday shipped to Boston, there's no longer a logjam at guard. Though Malcolm Brogdon is in the mix — for now — the path for Henderson to reach his full potential as the starting point guard is clear.
Anthony Black, Magic (PG/SG)
ADP: 140.6
Black's Summer League performances didn't change my mind about him. He's a natural playmaker who struggles shooting and isn't an elite athlete. Those players can have a tough time as rookies, and he's behind Markelle Fultz, Cole Anthony and probably Jalen Suggs. I would not draft Black in anything shallower than a 16-team league.
