2023-24 Fantasy Basketball: 3 forward sleepers to target in drafts this NBA season
Last week, I wrote about all the players I'm fading (guards, forwards and centers) in fantasy basketball drafts ahead of the 2023-24 NBA season. This week, I'm going deeper into the bag to find the sleepers — players outside the top 100 in average draft position that will help your fantasy team win immediately. The first installment featured the guards I'm highest on and now the forwards are up, so I'm D.I.T.C. (Diggin' in the Crates — shouts to Cam'Ron and Mase) for the underrated fantasy gems that'll emerge from the back ends of drafts.
Note: I excluded veterans who've been top 100 players in the past, like PJ Washington and Bojan Bogdanović along with one of my breakouts, Jalen McDaniels.
Trey Murphy III, SF/PF (ADP:115.8)
I had to include Murphy here in case people needed a reminder of how good of a player he is in fantasy. Sure, he took advantage of the absences of Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram for large portions of the 2022-23 season, but he's a perfect mix of efficiency and production. Murphy finished 46th in per-game value last season and 23rd in total value after dropping wild shooting splits of 48/41/90.
Unfortunately for fantasy managers, he tore his meniscus during a workout in early September and is sidelined for 10-12 weeks — putting his return date in the November-to-December timeframe. That means fantasy managers will have to draft and stash. I spoke with Murphy at the Las Vegas Summer League, and I asked him what he was doing in the offseason to improve his game. He replied, "My ball-handling and getting to the line more." I've been monitoring his progress since that moment by all accounts, getting stronger with a better handle has been the priority all offseason.
Murphy will likely be eased in once he's ready to return, but I think he proved enough in his second NBA season that even if he doesn't rejoin the starting unit, he'll be a valuable sixth man who can be effective in 25-plus minutes per game. He's not only great from three, but he gathered 1.6 stocks as well. He is an underrated player who will finish much higher than his ADP suggests. Buy the dip and put him in the IL spot.
Keegan Murray, SF/PF, Sacramento Kings (ADP: 106.2)
I echo my boy Justin Henry's sentiments on Murray after his historic first season, becoming the leader in three-pointers made in his rookie campaign. The Kings added some depth in the offseason, but that shouldn't deter Murray from being even better in Year Two. He finished 116th in per-game value last season and based on the strides he made in Summer League and preseason, it's clear that he'll be taking another step forward.
Kings head coach Mike Brown has mentioned that Murray's offensive game is expanding, showing more than being just a catch-and-shoot type of player — which will only heighten his fantasy appeal. Since he'll be starting at power forward, I expect we'll see growth as a rebounder and defender, too. Murray seemed to get more comfortable doing both as the 2022-23 season wore on, averaging over five rebounds per game and 1.5 stocks in three of the season's final four months.
I don't expect his usage to climb much higher than 16%, but because he's such an efficient shooter, he won't need a ton to still produce in fantasy this season.
Jalen Johnson, SF/PF, Atlanta Hawks (ADP:141.7)
I'm probably too early, but Johnson is worth a late-round flier in fantasy basketball this season. He's already showcasing his multi-faceted skillset throughout the preseason, and that type of production will elevate him into the starting lineup at some point this season.
You shouldn't put too much stock into the preseason, but having another creator like Johnson in the frontcourt makes the Hawks even more dynamic. Athleticism and shooting-wise, he looks like former Hawks forward John Collins, but Johnson is a more competent passer. Look at some of these lefty finishes and dimes; he's nasty.
Jalen Johnson in only 17 minutes:
12 points | 3 rebounds | 7 assists | 5-9 shooting
Still only 21 should see a lot of time for the Hawks pic.twitter.com/4jNawyX1in— Teg🚨 (@IQfor3) October 14, 2023
Johnson's been on the back burner for a couple of seasons, so the timing of the Collins trade couldn't have been any better for Johnson as he had more time to refine and evolve his game to contribute right away once given the opportunity. He fits the profile of a third-year breakout, and knowing that he'll be in the rotation, he'll only need a couple of dominos to fall to maximize his fantasy potential — trading away De'Andre Hunter and/or Clint Capela. It will happen, and when it does, you'll be elated to have Johnson stashed on your bench, as his game translates very well for fantasy basketball.
He's a very low-risk, high-upside pick who could pop off when he gets over 20 minutes a game.
Here are some other sleepers I've been targeting with forward eligibility in the later rounds: Pat Williams, Saadiq Bey, Talen Horton-Tucker, Obi Toppin and Paul Reed.