By Chris Allen, 4for4

Special to Yahoo Sports

The fantasy market gets sharper every season. The amount of data available to us through free tools and sites is almost daunting. But the projections drive draft cost. And yet, we need to find edges any way we can to win our leagues. Here’s where hitting on breakouts can turn the tide in your favor.

It’s not an exact science, but there are signs. Teams can give us only so many clues before Week 1. Matthew Stafford’s aggression matched with the Rams’ efficient play-calling immediately made sense when the trade happened. They just happened to get a historic year out of Cooper Kupp simultaneously. So, let’s see if we can find similar situations as we head into the 2022 draft season.

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars

Let’s start simple. Calling Trevor Lawrence a breakout candidate is by no means a tough decision. Everyone was back on board after the front office hired Doug Pederson. Finally, a coach and staff capable of overseeing the development of an elite quarterback prospect. But it’d be fair to wonder if they can undo the damage from Lawrence’s rookie season.

According to the table, Lawrence was inaccurate and inefficient while trying to compensate for his mistakes by throwing more (incomplete) passes. Oh, plus he took a lot of sacks. A simple coaching change would take years to fix a similar prospect. But a deeper look into the numbers characterizing his mechanics yielded promising results.

There’s a push-pull relationship between quarterbacks and offensive line play. Passers who hold the ball longer put more strain on their protection. Lawrence had the seventh-highest time to throw (2.84 seconds) on 668 dropbacks. Now, we can’t lay all the blame at his feet. I'd also have trust issues with his skill players from last season. Regardless, he could manage a collapsing pocket like the best in the game.

Lawrence had the sixth-lowest pressure-to-sack ratio (14.5%) amongst all passers. I highlighted where his classmates were on the same chart to emphasize the skill gap despite the same experience level. He saw 70 more pressures than Aaron Rodgers yet took just two more sacks. So, Lawrence has good footwork. But he still had trouble completing passes. Sure, but again, it wasn’t entirely his fault.

Once more, we find Lawrence playing the game on All-Madden mode compared to his peers. Admittedly, nobody had a star-studded crew at their disposal. Still, somehow the Jaguars found new ways to make life more complicated. But, looking to 2022, Jacksonville brought in Christian Kirk (first in EPA per target and 20th in Yards per route run) and Zay Jones (25th and 26th). They also brought in an offensive coaching duo who know how to develop young quarterbacks.

It feels like ages ago, but Carson Wentz showed promise early in his career. Part of it was the scheme Pederson and Press Taylor (former Philadelphia quarterbacks coach/passing game coordinator, now Jacksonville's offensive coordinator) put in place. The heavy use of play-action concepts kept the offense at or above the league average in EPA per play for Wentz’s first three years until the wheels came off in 2020. Lawrence has already shown he can handle post-snap reads better than Wentz. He now has the guidance and personnel to execute on the field, making him intriguing for a QB going 132.3 on Yahoo.

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Matt Ryan, Colts

Matt Ryan is a tougher sell when considering actual breakouts. We all know rushing production is the skeleton key to fantasy success. Ryan has had at least one rushing touchdown every year going back to 2018, but we can’t expect much wiggle out of him at 37 years old. So we’ll need more passing touchdowns. The Colts can (potentially) accommodate us.

Many folks, including myself at times, looked at Indianapolis’ offensive tendencies from last year and assumed nothing would change. Why would it? Jonathan Taylor was the most explosive back while still grinding out more first downs of any rusher. The offensive line should be healthy. There’s no need for them to be more pass-heavy. But it’s how Frank Reich operated before trying to fix Carson Wentz.

On the left, I see a consistent, semi-aggressive offense with an identity. And the Colts fit that description with Philip Rivers. They were 14th in neutral passing rate, 18th in pace, and Rivers was 10th in red-zone attempts. I only see inconsistency on the right. Everything changed in 2021. Their neutral passing rate fell to 23rd while their pace dropped to dead last. Matt Ryan is closer to Rivers on the quarterback spectrum, lending credence to the idea their pass rate should see an uptick this season. Plus, their pass-catching personnel are already top-tier.

If Ryan is a breakout candidate, he better be tied to breakout receiving options. Michael Pittman was already 13th in Targets per route run (TPRR) and 15th in Yards per route run (YPRR) last year. Nyheim Hines was top-10 in YPRR with the second-highest aDOT amongst all running backs. With Taylor as the headliner, this skill-position group has potential. We just need Ryan to stay upright throughout the season.

Few pure pocket passers can do it better than Ryan when given time to operate. He continued to post top-12 accuracy and efficiency rankings even as Atlanta’s offensive line and receiving options declined. On paper, the Colts offer a more stable situation. However, it’s essential to visualize how much better it could be.

Starters on the Colts’ offensive line missed a combined seven games due to injury in 2020. And none of the injuries occurred until at least a month into the year. Quenton Nelson entered 2021 fresh off two offseason surgeries. He wound up missing four games. Braden Smith missed six games with a foot injury. Fortunately, they’re back to start the year (along with a few draft prospects) to give Ryan as much protection as possible.

I’ll admit the chances of Ryan finishing even on the fringe of the Top 12 is a long shot. His lack of rushing production caps his ceiling. However, given the offensive protection, firepower, and scheme, he’s got a shot to surprise us all. Considering his Yahoo ADP is 131.3, it costs little to find out if he can deliver.

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Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins

It’s easy to look at the pass-catching options and see a breakout season from Tua Tagovailoa. He’s going as the QB21 (127.5 overall) on Yahoo with two top-20 wide receivers. If they meet their expectations and we get some spike weeks from the ancillary options, Tagovailoa can slide past some of his peers. But the 2021 season left us with more questions than answers regarding the third-year quarterback.

Miami found a rhythm in their passing game late in the year. It required the Dolphins to lead the league in play-action rate while their quarterback’s passing aDOT dropped to 6.7 (29th amongst all passers), but it worked for a time. From Weeks 11 to 18, Tagovailoa was 15th in EPA per play. So he can adapt to a simplified scheme. However, Mike McDaniel’s offense ups the ante a little.

The 49ers’ offense targeted the middle of the field with the fifth-most attempts in this area. It allowed them to generate explosive plays and have three pass-catchers in the Top 10 for yards after the catch per reception. Tagovailoa was bottom-five in attempts. However, he did edge out Garoppolo in one metric.

To be clear, Tagovailoa was still prone to a backbreaking turnover or overthrow to extend a drive. However, he was more accurate in the area of the field critical to the offense’s success. And more importantly, his placement on attempts of 20-yards or more ranked him first amongst his peers.

Think about why San Francisco drafted Trey Lance. His mobility gives their rushing attack another dimension, sure. But Lance’s arm strength widens their margin of error. The ability to hit on a single deep pass reduces the need to be successful on multiple plays in a row. If Tagovailoa can be the lite version of Lance, there’s breakout potential in his future.

Check out the full version of this article — with three more breakout candidates — on 4for4.com

Chris Allen comes from an analytical background, leveraging his data skills with his multiple years of experience across different formats (e.g. seasonal redraft, DFS, MFL10). He has tested weather effects and its impact on games, player output variance, and the validity of the associated narratives. Chris can be heard as co-host on the Dynasty Manual podcast.

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