Fantasy baseball analyst Dalton Del Don breaks down some key notes to know as we head into fantasy baseball draft season.

• Ronald Acuña Jr. saw his power drop dramatically and his defense suffer during his return from MCL surgery last season. He made up for it, though, by stealing the second-most bases (29) in the NL despite playing in fewer than 120 games. Acuña expects to be much healthier this season after playing through considerable pain in 2022, when he also experienced bad luck in HR/Brl%.

Steamer is projecting a modest 30/40 season in fewer than 150 games; Acuña is the No. 1 player on my board.

• Triston McKenzie posted a 31:1 K:BB ratio over his final four starts last year and is a dark horse Cy Young candidate in 2023. The tall righty is equally effective against left-handers and should benefit from new catcher Mike Zunino’s strong defense/framing. McKenzie is a top-15 SP on my board, but he’s being selected around the SP30 in early Yahoo drafts.

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• Many people are calling Kyle Harrison’s floor a healthy Chris Sale.

In all seriousness, Harrison is baseball’s best left-handed pitching prospect who’s ready to contribute sooner rather than later. The Giants’ rotation looks deep on paper, but it’s not a group strong enough to hold back a prospect who just struck out 186 batters over 113.0 innings as a 20-year-old. Harrison won’t pitch deep into games, but he will still be a major fantasy asset the moment San Francisco gives him a chance in the rotation.

• The White Sox have a roster filled with more bounce-back candidates than any other in recent memory. Luis Robert, Eloy Jiménez, Tim Anderson and Yoán Moncada all underperformed and missed 50-plus games last season. Lucas Giolito also sported one of the biggest differences between ERA and FIP and is another excellent fantasy target primed for a big rebound (without Tony La Russa) in Chicago this season.

• Aaron Ashby’s latest shoulder injury isn’t ideal for someone who bet the Brewers at 20/1 to win the NL and just traded for him in a dynasty league. Nonetheless, I remain bullish on Milwaukee, which’ll benefit from playing in the NL Central and has an incredibly loaded pitching staff even without Ashby. But durability concerns are aplenty. And if Devin Williams’ Airbender causes further arm issues, Matt Bush is a sleeper to rack up saves.

• Nolan Jones was a fantasy sleeper after being traded to the Rockies even before Randal Grichuk’s recent hernia surgery. Colorado’s lineup has multiple spots open for competition, and Jones is a former second-round pick who posted a 122 wRC+ in Triple-A last season. Far worse hitters have provided plenty of fantasy value playing half their games in Colorado. Coors Field boosted batting average an MLB-high 13% for left-handed batters last season. It also increased scoring an MLB-high 46%; the next highest was 17% (while Petco Park decreased scoring by 21%). Draft Jones before he’s no longer a sleeper.

• I’ll have more in next week’s Park Factors column, but Blue Jays pitchers should probably be lowered in rankings given the new park dimensions in Toronto. Adding Kevin Kiermaier’s glove will help, but this could have a real impact. Matt Chapman can be bumped up.

• HOT TAKE ALERT: Both Edward Cabrera and Jesús Luzardo produce more fantasy value than Sandy Alcantara in 2023. Braxton Garrett is a real sleeper in Miami, too. If Trevor Rogers regains his form, the Marlins rotation could be among the very best in baseball this year. And RIP to Dylan Floro’s fantasy value after Miami traded for A.J. Puk.

[2023 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP]

• With Frankie Montas unfortunately set for shoulder surgery, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt get fantasy boosts. Schmidt is a former first-round pick who impressed out of the bullpen last season, while German’s peripherals suggest real potential. Both should rack up wins if given an opportunity in the Yankees rotation. Meanwhile, a healthy Michael King could threaten those hoping Clay Holmes closes all season.

• Andrew Painter is just 19 years old but has a legitimate shot at opening the season in Philadelphia’s starting rotation. The best pitching prospect in baseball, Painter added a cutter during the offseason after fanning 155 batters over 103.2 innings across the minors last year.

Painter is also a great name for a pitcher, and I’ll be aggressively drafting him accordingly.

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