10 keys to winning your Week 9 fantasy football matchup
Fantasy football analyst Sal Vetri will use this space to deliver his keys to victory every week of the 2023 NFL season.
Finding No. 1: James Cook is trending down
In two games without Damien Harris, Cook has seen increased usage, handling 65% of the Bills carries. But there’s an issue: he’s seen less usage in the passing game. Cook has run 24 routes per game the past two weeks but has only earned 5% of the targets. Latavius Murray has seen similar passing-game usage to Cook and has even handled the two-minute offense work.
To make matters worse, the Bills signed Leonard Fournette. The last time we saw Fournette was in Tampa last year, where he earned the fourth-most RB targets and was trusted in pass protection.
Cook will have boom-or-bust weeks due to his efficiency but his consistent production may be gone.
Finding No. 2: The best RB spot of the week belongs to Jerome Ford
Ford was limited in Week 8 due to injury, which led to him playing just 31% of the snaps and handling 24% of the opportunities. But Ford actually saw his usage increase in the second half in a close game against the Seahawks.
Expect Ford to operate as the RB1 this week now that he’s healthier. He finds himself in a great spot, as the Browns are seven-point favorites against the Cardinals' bottom-five run defense. Arizona has allowed the third-most points to opposing RBs.
Ford has averaged a top-15 RB finish when he's been healthy this season.
Finding No. 3: Tony Pollard is in the sketchy spot of the week
The Cowboys scored 43 points in Week 8 and won by 23. Surely, Tony Pollard had to have a good game, right?
Wrong. Pollard scored just 5.8 points on 13 touches before being pulled in the fourth-quarter blowout.
Pollard’s role remains strong; he ranks top-five in RB usage this season, but his efficiency has taken a hit this year. This is happening at the wrong time because now he’ll face the Eagles' star-studded defensive line. Philadelphia has allowed the fewest yards and fantasy points to opposing RBs. I expect Pollard to turn things around this season, but it may not happen this week.
Finding No. 4: The pick-up-and-play of the week is Demario Douglas
He’s run 80% of the Patriots' routes the past two games, leading to 13 targets. The sixth-round rookie was a training camp standout and now he’s getting a real opportunity in the regular season.
Both Devante Parker and Kendrick Bourne were injured in Week 8. Parker suffered a head injury in the third quarter and didn’t return. Bourne suffered a torn ACL and will miss the rest of the season.
Douglas has a chance to be the Patriots' No. 1 receiver in Week 9. He played ahead of JuJu Smith-Schuster last week, despite JuJu being healthy. The rookie has earned a solid 20% of the targets these past two weeks, and this week he’ll face a Commanders defense that allows the most points to opposing WRs.
Finding No. 5: The Bengals offense is trending up
Joe Burrow appears to be healthy and it showed in Week 8. Burrow completed 88% of his passes and averaged nearly nine yards per attempt against the 49ers' No. 1 of-ranked defense.
Burrow looks fully healthy after having an additional week to rest during his bye. This fueled big days for Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Mixon. The offense trending up also makes Tee Higgins a nice buy-low option, as he had 69 yards on six targets last week.
Coming up, the Bengals have a great fantasy playoff schedule against the Vikings, Steelers and Chiefs.
Finding No. 6: Zach Charbonnet is a top-end backup to add
Charbonnet quietly saw a season-high 31% of the rush attempts in Week 8, splitting second-half usage evenly with Kenneth Walker and producing 64 yards on just seven touches.
Now, Walker was coming into that game with an injury so there’s a decent chance his season-low 44% of the snaps was directly related to this. But after the game head coach Pete Carroll raved about Charbonnet.
Regardless, the second-round rookie has been solid this entire season. On his 36 touches, he’s averaging 5.8 yards per touch, which ranks top 10 in the NFL. I don’t believe Charbonnet is going to take the job from Walker, but this is just a reminder of how good the rookie is. He shouldn’t be available in as many leagues as he is right now (he's just 44% rostered).
Finding No. 7: Monitor Gabe Davis
He had a massive game in Week 8 but it was actually produced differently than his usual outings. Typically, Davis is a boom-or-bust receiver who thrives on downfield targets. But that wasn’t the case in Week 8.
Davis' average depth of target was cut in half to just seven yards downfield. This translated to a season-high 31% target share and 19.2 fantasy points. There was a reason for this shift. The Bills changed their offense in Week 8 after losing Dawson Knox to IR.
This led to Buffalo using more three-WR sets and Davis earned more targets in the short areas of the field. The Bills' offense was great in Week 8, so they should be incentivized to keep this usage going for Davis. Next up are matchups against two bottom-five secondaries in the Bengals and Broncos.
Finding No. 8: Garrett Wilson is in the best WR spot of the week
Wilson ranks second in wide receiver usage in the past four games. He’s averaged over 11 targets per game during this time. Only Stefon Diggs has had a better role the past month.
Wilson has earned 34% of the Jets' targets this season, which ranks second in the NFL. Despite his poor QB play, Garrett has produced consistent top-20 numbers.
This week he faces the Chargers, who allow the fourth-most points to opposing receivers. Expect a potential eruption from Wilson this week.
Finding No. 9: Trust Christian Watson one more time
Watson hasn’t been good this season. He has yet to have a top-24 finish across his four starts. But we can’t blame Watson for this. Only 50% of his targets have been catchable this season. Jordan Love has struggled and the play-calling has been rough.
But you should trust Watson one more time this week. He ranks fifth in downfield usage this season and now faces the Rams, who allow the third-most explosive plays of 20+ yards to opposing receivers. Fire up Watson in Week 9.
Finding No. 10: Don’t trust Alexander Mattison
Mattison has a lot working against him this week. For starters, his QB will be Jaren Hall, who is making his NFL debut. This will likely lead to a less efficient offense with fewer red-zone drives.
Mattison will also take on the Falcons' No. 1 run defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest points to opposing backs. This isn’t great, and it doesn’t help that Mattison has seen his usage decrease in the past two games. He’s handled just 46% of the Vikings' carries as Cam Akers has become more involved. Consider benching Mattison if you have a viable replacement.