The US House of Representatives is set to vote on a foreign aid package over the weekend which will give billions of dollars in support to several regions including Ukraine, Israel, and the Indo-Pacific region. In addition, a bill forcing ByteDance's divestment from TIkTok has found its way into the package. While there is sure to be pushback from either side of the aisle, is there enough bipartisan goodwill to see the package passed?

Stifel Chief Washington Policy Strategist Brian Gardner joins Market Domination Overtime to give insight into the House Foreign Aid package and the chances of it passing.

On the chances of it passing, Garner claims the bill "will go to the Senate and I suspect it will ultimately pass. The TikTok issue was something that was kind of interesting because there was some apprehension about the TikTok legislation by some Senate Democrats, among others, that's apparently been addressed. So you're going to have a series of individual votes on these different bills that are going to be cobbled together, merged together, sent to the Senate, and I think it passes. "

For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Market Domination Overtime.

This post was written by Nicholas Jacobino

Video Transcript

- Well, Israel's latest strike on Iran fueling fears of an expanding conflict in the region. The US now considering giving more than 1 billion in new arms for Israel. That's according to reporting from the "Wall Street Journal." That proposed transfer coming as an existing US aid package, which includes support for Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan is heading for a vote this weekend.

Brian Gardner, Stifles Chief Washington policy strategist is joining us now for more. Brian, thank you so much for being here. I want to start on the situation in the Middle East because I'm curious to what degree would the tensions there have to worsen to push the US to give even more aid specifically to that region of the world.

BRIAN GARDNER: I think the US is probably pretty locked in the Middle East. So any increase in tensions in the Middle East are probably going to get some kind of US response. So I don't think-- the answer to your question is the bar is not that high. It's in the US interest to cooperate and work with, collaborate with other players in the Middle East, not just Israel, but the Saudis and other Arab governments that are interested in containing Iran.

So I think there will be further US response at some point. What that bar is, I don't know, but it's not that high.

- Meantime, Brian-- hey, it's Julie here-- you've got bipartisanship in Washington, it looks like, at least on the House side when it comes to this aid package that now has bundled in aid for Ukraine, aid for Israel, oh, and a little TikTok divestment thing thrown in there too. Do you think it will indeed pass tomorrow? And then what?

BRIAN GARDNER: Yeah, I think the chances are quite good. The vote on the-- the procedural vote earlier today on the rule suggests a level of bipartisanship. There's bipartisan opposition to it as well. But I think there-- the votes are there. It will go to the Senate. And I suspect it will ultimately pass.

I mean, the TikTok issue was something that was kind of interesting because there was some apprehension about the TikTok legislation by some Senate Democrats among others. That's apparently been addressed. So you're going to have a series of individual votes on these different bills. They're going to be cobbled together, merged together, sent to the Senate. I think it passes. So I think over the next couple of days, we'll have more Ukraine funding, more Israel funding, funding for Taiwan, and the TikTok issue as well.

- Is it going to cost Mike Johnson his speakership?

BRIAN GARDNER: I don't think so. I-- so I think it makes it more likely that there will actually be a vote to remove him. I think that vote probably fails. This vote probably fails, because I think Democrats will step up-- enough Democrats will step up, oppose the motion to vacate. The problem for the speaker is later on, what the rest of the agenda looks like for the remainder of 2024.

Now there's not a ton of must do legislation until the end of the year after the election, but to the extent that Republicans want to put up a bunch of messaging bills kind of going into the election. If there were to be a subsequent effort by Republicans to remove Johnson, Democrats may later not feel as friendly towards Johnson willing to support him. So he survives for now, but he does have to be careful as we go through the rest of the year.