Why a U.S credit rating downgrade is likely as shutdown fears linger

The House of Representatives is in chaos as Republicans scramble to install a new Speaker of the House, after the historic ousting of Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Ca.). Without a Speaker, the House can't officially move forward on any spending bills, leaving little time to put a deal together before the November 17 deadline. Moody's has warned that another government shutdown could put further pressure on the United States' credit rating.

Yahoo Finance Senior Columnist Rick Newman joins the Live show to break down what is going on in the halls of Congress, the potential for another government shutdown, and what a downgrade would mean for the economy.

For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance Live.

Video Transcript

BRAD SMITH: Lawmakers have until mid November to reach a deal to keep the government open. And without a Speaker at the helm, the House can't move forward on any spending bills. Rating agency, Moody's, previously warned that a government shutdown could put pressure on the US's credit. Yahoo Finance's Rick Newman joins us now with why a credit downgrade is still worth keeping on your radar. Hey, Rick.

RICK NEWMAN: Hey, guys. Well, first of all, it seems possibly more likely than before that we are going to have a government shutdown in November. The political analysts I've been following on this say it's very hard to see how Congress is going to get.

All the Bills finished that need to fund the government-- remember, the House at the moment is basically not functioning-- and even if it does get a Speaker, all the dynamics that we saw leading up to the chaos of the last week are likely to remain in place.

And Moody's has already warned that if there is a government shutdown, it could be the third rating agency to lower the US credit rating from the triple A level, the best there is that the United States has enjoyed for most of its history until recent times. And all of the-- so Standard and Poor's has downgraded United States that one all the way back to 2011. Fitch downgraded the United States earlier this year.

And the problem is not the creditworthiness of the US government. All of these rating agencies keep pointing out the problem is political. It's that lawmakers and policymakers simply cannot run the country in a coherent fashion in this almost always lands on Republicans.

It is Republicans who are the ones who are threatening not to pay $33 trillion in US debt it's Republicans who are always doing the shutdown theatrics. And this is starting to matter. I mean, this rise in interest rates and bond rates that we've been talking about during the last several weeks are related to the size of the US debt and to-- probably related to the situation with the credit rating of the United States.

And it's beginning to look like you can say that higher interest rates, which are costing Americans money through more expensive mortgages, car loans and so on-- part of that is because of these idiots in Washington. So these politicians who cannot get the job done-- almost all of them Republicans-- are starting to cost ordinary people money and we need to turn this around.

SEANA SMITH: Rick, talk a little bit more about what this exactly could mean for investors because I think a lot of people largely brushed it off just in terms of the risks there. But if we do see a government shutdown-- if we do see a downgrade here in the credit rating-- just what the possible implications of that are.

BRAD SMITH: It does not have direct implications for most things investors care about. I mean, it's not like the stock market is going to tank the day after Moody's becomes the third rating agency to lower the US credit rating. But everybody is now talking about what's happening in the bond market.

And the bond market does not announce why interest rates are going up exactly. But it's very clear that we are seeing interest rates going up-- no longer because the Federal Reserve is pushing short interest short term rates up-- interest rates are going up, medium and long term rates are going up for other reasons.

And it's not-- it's probably not one simple thing. We do not know if this is sort of permanent, temporary, what's going on, but it is probably the case. And you're just starting to hear people trying to figure this out. It's probably the case that high levels of US public debt and the problems and the political problems in Washington that could lead to another downgrade are part of the reason that medium and long term interest rates are going up.

Again, this is the mortgages. We've got mortgages now over 7%. We have had medium and long term rates going up by more than short term rates for the last several months. So it's not the Fed anymore. It is other factors that are affecting the bond market. And it does seem like the so-called bond market vigilantes who have been asleep for the last 20 years are starting to wake up.

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