A House vote on Wednesday, March 13, would push an ultimatum in front of Chinese media company ByteDance — divest and sell off TikTok or face a ban in the US. Axios Pro Tech Policy Reporter Maria Curi explains the hurdles an outright TikTok ban could face as lawmakers prioritize the security of Americans' private data.

"Even though this bill has moved very quickly through the House, it was just introduced... at the committee level last week, now it's being expected to pass tomorrow. It still faces a long road ahead in the Senate, and then even if President Biden does sign it into law — which he has indicated he would — it will immediately be challenged by TikTok and ByteDance in all likelihood, and then it would get caught up in the courts...," Curi tells Yahoo Finance.

For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance Live.

Editor's note: This article was written by Luke Carberry Mogan.

Video Transcript

[AUDIO LOGO]

JULIE HYMAN: The House is voting on a bill that gives Chinese company ByteDance an ultimatum. Sell TikTok or face a ban in the United States. But how likely is it that ByteDance will sell? Who would take control if it did?

Here to help us answer these questions is Axios Pro Tech Policy Reporter Maria Curi. And, Maria, there's been some reporting now also that ByteDance says it's going to fight this if the bill does indeed get passed. But, you know, I think there are a lot of questions about how this would all play out even if the bill does get passed. So what are you hearing?

MARIA CURI: Absolutely. So they have already been fighting this, to be clear. They have creators-- here on Capitol Hill where I am now just outside the House of Representatives lobbying against this and speaking out against this. And they've been meeting with lawmakers as well. They will continue to do so tomorrow.

And even though this bill has moved very quickly through the House, it was just introduced and passed out of the committee level last week. Now, it's being expected to pass tomorrow. So it still faces a long road ahead in the Senate.

And then even if President Biden does sign it into law, which he has indicated he would, it will immediately be challenged by TikTok and ByteDance in all likelihood. And then it would get caught up in the courts likely delaying that 165 divestment period that ByteDance has to sell TikTok. And then from there, we can get into the different companies that have been floated as potential buyers.

There are some that would make sense. Beginning with Microsoft. If we remember under the Trump administration when former President Donald Trump tried to force divestiture through an executive order, he actually gave ByteDance 45 days. So much less than 165 days. But as we know, that did end up falling through.

BRIAN SOZZI: Let me ask you. What are the legal differences between that executive order that President Trump issued way back in the day? And this bill, this would be a law passed by Congress. What kind of weight does that carry versus the executive order? And just for the general-- I guess, just generally thinking about the likelihood of it actually coming to pass.

MARIA CURI: Right. So an executive order legally is flimsier than a law passed by Congress. An executive order could be reversed just by the next incoming president. That being said, we have seen that at the state level legislation has pretty immediately faced court challenges.

I'm talking about Montana, which did try to ban TikTok. And it meat that was frozen it never went into effect. And it's going through the courts right now.

This bill is different from the Montana bill. Its sponsors are arguing that it's not an outright ban. It's a divestiture requirement.

But it still faces constitutionality concerns, first Amendment concerns, and bill of attainder concerns, whether or not you can come after an individual or a group of individuals without trial. Even then, if it does clear all of those concerns, there are questions about antitrust. And if another social media company were to purchase this app, is that a monopoly concern?

And, you know, China can also come in and try to stop this and block it. So it definitely faces an uphill battle. But this is still the most energy we have seen since TikTok's CEO Shou Zi Chew testified before the House to get something done. So it is notable.

JULIE HYMAN: And, Maria, let's say that it did pass, and that there wasn't a divestment, and there was an attempt to actually ban it. I mean, we saw this play out in Montana to some extent. And then there were some legal challenges. But technologically, how would it even work to ban an app?

MARIA CURI: That's a great question. So the primary concern right now is with the data itself, like US data, and whose hands it's in. And Oracle right now has control in its cloud services of American data.

That hasn't been enough to please lawmaker concerns that the Chinese government could still step in and have all that data be transferred over to China. But it is in the hands of Oracle right now. That's a $1.5 billion investment that ByteDance and TikTok made into Oracle.

And so another question is, what company is going to want to continue that? And Oracle itself is another potential buyer that has been floated. They haven't come out and said anything. But they are seen as a viable candidate.

BRIAN SOZZI: All right. A lot to chew on there. Thank you for stopping by, Maria Curi.

MARIA CURI: Thank you.