PCE data must fall before Fed cuts rates: Economist

April's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report came in line with analyst expectations as investors await the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision. HSBC US Economist Ryan Wang joins Morning Brief to discuss the possibility of rate cuts this year.

With core inflation staying at 2.8% year over year, Wang notes that the latest PCE print "doesn't indicate much progress on disinflation this year." He adds that consumer spending has largely remained resilient. However, growth over the last month has been limited as April retail sales were lower than expected.

Wang believes that core PCE needs to fall to about 2.5% before the Fed delivers a rate cut, explaining, "On our forecast, we see that as a very, very close call." He expects a single cut in September, but without core PCE decreasing further, the Fed may not deliver a sequence of rate cuts.

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This post was written by Melanie Riehl

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