According to the National Retail Federation, 130 million Americans are expected to shop on Black Friday amid high inflation dampening consumer spend. However, ICSC CEO Tom McGee forecasts the overall holiday weekend into Cyber Monday will see a robust $130 billion in sales, up 3.8% from last year.

McGee notes while shoppers remain cost-conscious, retailers have responded with promotions to relieve pricing pressures. McGee acknowledges that "the consumer has been resilient in the face of inflation" throughout the year, expecting that strength to continue fueled by deals and accumulated savings.

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Video Transcript

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- Today is one of the biggest shopping days of the year. The National Retail Federation projecting that over 130 million people are expected to shop today. But with the current consumer client climate, consumers pulling back on spending, how much money should we expect shoppers to actually spend? We want to bring in Tom McGee. He's ICSC's CEO. Joining us now, Tom, it's great to see you. So the trends that you've seen so far this holiday season over the last several weeks, how does that set us up then heading into the holiday season, heading into-- to December?

TOM MCGEE: Yeah. Well, good morning. I hope you had a great Thanksgiving day. Our expectation for the overall holiday season is 3.8% growth. We expect a very-- a very strong Thanksgiving day weekend. $130 billion spent, about 4% more than last year. 80% of people will shop today on Black Friday. 81% will shop on Cyber Monday. But the consumer will continue to be very focused upon inflation and the impact of inflation, looking for promotions that speaks to the importance of days like today, Black Friday and-- and Cyber Monday, and looking forward to Super Saturday, which are those big shopping days where retailers tend to lean into promotions.

So overall, you know, the same trends we've experienced over the last 12 months or so, which is the consumer has been resilient in the face of inflation but-- but a little more sensitive and looking for promotions. You know, 70% of consumers will look for promotions. And that will dictate a lot of what they buy this holiday season.

- How critical of a holiday shopping season is this for department stores and malls, quite frankly, Tom? Many of them who have been in focus because of the changing foot traffic or volume that these shopping centers had seen for decades now starting to peter out or at least start to matriculate over to some digital shopping that we've seen as deals get thrust forward there in more direct to consumer environments. How critical of a shopping season is this for some of those operators of these larger, kind of, square footage retail spaces?

TOM MCGEE: Well, you know, this-- this-- the holiday season is always super important in retail, for sure, and particularly this period from Black Friday heading into Christmas itself. And so I don't think this year is any different than the past in that regard. The one thing that's happened over the course of the last decade or so is the holiday season has become longer. We look at the holiday season at ICSC as really beginning in October extending through the end of December. Because people do shop earlier now. And particularly in the face of inflation, they're looking for promotions whether that's in October, November, and December.

I do think this particular year, you know, with-- with consumer sensitivity around pricing being at its most heightened level over the course for the last decade or so, that the next month or so will be quite important. Because the consumer is looking for promotions right now.

- Do you expect promotional activity to pick up as we get closer to Christmas?

TOM MCGEE: I do. I do. I think that-- you know, I think retailers understand that the consumer is very price conscious. And you've heard a number of retail CEOs come out and talk about, you know, the intention of looking at promotions to entice consumer behavior. So I do expect that to be the case.