What to expect from retailers this holiday season

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According to Deloitte’s Annual Black Friday-Cyber Monday survey, consumers plan to spend an average of $567 during Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales, up 13% from last year. While consumers seem to be ready to increase spending during this holiday season, wallets will certainly be hurt as inflation remains steady for necessities like food. Stacey Widlitz, SW Retail Advisors Chief International Store Hunter, joins Yahoo Finance to give insight into where consumers will be looking for the best deals and which retailers poised to capitalize on current economic trends during this holiday season.

On where consumers are focused Widlitz explains: "Obviously consumers are spending on necessities, you know, we're talking about disinflation and that's great, but the bottom line is food costs are up 20% on a two-year basis and that's not declining, that's just stagnating. So the consumer is still feeling it and still spending on their basics. I think you're going to see a lot of that this holiday season. You're already seeing with the likes of Target (TGT) and Walmart (WMT) they're pushing hard on food and basics and health."

Watch the video above to find out which retailers Widlitz are in the best position for what consumers want right now.

For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance Live.

Video Transcript

- So give us like the big picture, first of all, going into this holiday season. Given what we've heard from the retailers so far where they're definitely sounding a little bit cautious, but given also some of the survey results that show higher spending is coming.

STACEY WIDLITZ: Absolutely. And we've heard different stories from different retailers. Obviously, consumers are spending on necessities. We're talking about disinflation and that's great but the bottom line is, food costs are up 20% on a two-year basis and that's not declining, that's just stagnating. So the consumer is still feeling it and still spending on their basics. And I think you're going to see a lot of that this holiday season.

And you've already seeing with the likes of Target and Walmart they're pushing really hard on food, and basics, and health. I think the discretionary part of the business everybody said it's still weak, Home Depot, big ticket stuff is weak, Williams-Sonoma, their comps are down double digits on furniture. So there are issues out there.

But clearly these stocks have rallied and particularly the underdog retail stocks have rallied 15% to 30%, some of them, because expectations are low. And also, inventories are really lean, very clean going into holiday. So I think investors are giving a pass to the retailers for perhaps disappointing sales as long as their margins are intact.

- And Stacey, so against that backdrop, we got Black Friday, Cyber Monday coming up here. What are you expecting there.

STACEY WIDLITZ: Oh, yeah. My two favorite days of the year.

[CHUCKLES]

So I think, again, as we see inventories, super lean across the board going into these holidays, I think that we might see a little less promotions across the board than usual. You might see a little more up to 40% off, rather than 40% off everything. But some retailers and some brands as usual take the opportunity to throw a 20% off to get the consumer interested, to get them in the store or online to buy other things. But again, I do think this year, that mix shift toward necessities will continue.

- Stacy, when you look at who's doing it right, right now or maybe is it the intersection of doing it right and being in the right place in terms of just what consumers want right now. Is there an example or examples that you can think of.

STACEY WIDLITZ: Sure, there are several. But Walmart comes to mind. They reported comps that beat and the stock traded down 8% because they've really had the wind to their back. Because inflation that's been up high singles food inflation, double digits over the past two years, has been driving their comp naturally. So that's been a huge tailwind for them.

That's coming to an end. And they've talked about that. And at the same time, discretionary hasn't picked up yet. So I think the guys who had this food exposure, things are going to get tougher for them, and also you look at the likes of Target. So their comps were down, their traffic continues to be down. Meanwhile, TJX, Walmart traffic remains up.

I think you want to own the players that still have the momentum in their traffic, as we're going into a tougher environment, and you can't push pricing along to the consumer like these brands had. Don't forget, over the last couple of years, we had the likes of Coors, and Tapestry, Coach, Ralph Lauren, who increased prices 20%, 30%. So the consumer's had enough and is pushing back.

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