West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at $73.84/barrel on Thursday, up 5.3% for the session. Oil has popped 11% from its October 1 intraday low of $66.33. Flaring tension in the Middle East is the obvious catalyst for the run higher. With the rally, WTI has broken some shorter-term bearish trendlines and is working on a bullish false breakdown. Yet the surge higher in oil is news-related and not based on supply and demand. And while no immediate end to Middle East tension is in sight, crude likely will fall back quickly when calm prevails. As we said before, the COT data for WTI is bullish, as is the COT data for gasoline and heating oil. We imagine there will be more volatility, with the potential for big moves up and down. The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ETF has moved sideways for seven days and appears to be tracing out another bull flag. Gold has benefited from a declining U.S. Dollar Index as well as declining yields -- although those trends have reversed, at least in the short term. So far, gold and silver have not been hurt by the pop in the greenback -- once again ignoring a rising currency. As we have been saying, the COT data on the dollar recently turned