In theory, investors can breathe easier heading into the fourth quarter, when markets typically post the strongest returns of the year. To draw this conclusion, we analyzed data collected on S&P 500 performance from 1980-2022. By our calculations, the quarter has generated average gains of 4.8%, compared to gains of 2.3%, 2.9%, and 0.4% for 1Q, 2Q, and 3Q, respectively. The fourth quarter is consistent as well, with a "win percentage" of 82%. This means that stock returns are positive in the quarter four years out of five, and compares to winning percentages of 67% in 1Q and 2Q and 62% in 3Q. But to be fair, the 4Q has posted its share of clunkers. In 1987, which included Black Friday, stocks fell 23% during the period; while in 2008 they sold off 18%, after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and as the U.S. economy plunged into a deep recession. As recently as 2018, stocks slid 14% in the final quarter when trade wars intensified and the Federal Reserve raised rates. But last year, when stocks were still in the early stages of the current bull mar