The calendar is nearing the moment of truth. Will there be a 25- or 50-basis-point (bps) cut in the federal funds rate? This is probably the most-discussed market event in recent history, with commentary from economists, market participants, and journalists filling the airwaves. In this space, we are chartists at heart, but we do have a decent background in economics -- so we could be referred to as being a few steps above a closet economist. Digging deeper, we don't think the answer to the above question matters very much. The economic numbers may lead toward 25 bps, while the market (almost always ahead of the Fed) seems to be leaning toward 50 bps. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 61% probability of 50 bps and 39% chance of 25 bps. Technically, we are inclined toward 50 bps as the market is (and has been) suggesting that the Fed is far behind the curve. The reaction of the stock and bond market to the cut could be quite interesting -- and we're not talking about the initial 15-minute response. Going back to 1960, a Fed rate-cutting cycle generally has been positive for the stock market. B