With WTI dropping below $70/barrel and the 10-year Treasury falling under 3.8%, the U.S. consumer has some tailwinds to keep the recession talk at a very low murmur. But maybe not if you accept the constant bearishness from the perma-bears who always dig deep and find obscure reasons for recessions and bear markets. Crude oil closed at $68.83 on Wednesday, its lowest level since December 2023. Oil has dropped from an intraday peak of $87.67 on April 12; that's 21% in a little over four months. There is multi-year chart support for WTI in the low- to mid-$60s range (ex. the pandemic). More relevant for consumers, gasoline has dropped to $1.95/gallon (ex. taxes, etc.) from an April 16 close of $2.82 (or by 31%). While it's not heating season yet, heating oil has fallen to $2.15/gallon from $2.96 in February (or 27%) and natural gas has plummeted 32% in less than three months. The COT data for all these energy products has improved -- so we may be approaching an intermediate-term bottom. The 10-year has fallen 94 basis points (bps) since Apr