The Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator, the PCE Price Index, will be released by the BEA this morning. PCE differs from the better-known Consumer Price Index because its composition is changed more frequently and it is thus quicker to reflect the impact of real-time pricing fluctuations. In the most recent report, through July, PCE inflation was reported at 2.5% year over year. Core PCE, which removes volatile food and energy prices, rose at a rate of 2.6% in the latest month. Our PCE forecasts are for 2.3% for the headline number and 2.8% for the core reading. Overall, inflation in this cycle peaked in summer 2022 and has been on a fairly consistent downward trek since then. We track 20 inflation measures on a monthly basis. On average, they are indicating that prices are rising at a 2.25% rate year over year, down from 2.70% a month ago. The numbers are volatile and are distorted somewhat by ultra-low readings within the Producer Price Intermediate Goods category, which may well be pointing to easing prices across the inflation spectrum in the months ahead. Focusing on core, our reading is 2.47%, essentially level month over month. That's propped up by sticky prices on shelter and transportation (the Sticky Price Core CPI Index reading is currently 4.1%). Looking ahead, investors are expecting that the Federal Reserve's series of rate hikes ultimately will tame inflation, with the three-year forward expectation rate at 2.17%.

Palantir is an analytical software company that focuses on leveraging data to create efficiencies in its clients’ organizations. The firm serves commercial and government clients via its Foundry and Gotham platforms, respectively. The Denver-based company was founded in 2003 and went public in 2020.

ASML is the leader in photolithography systems used in the manufacturing of semiconductors. Photolithography is the process in which a light source is used to expose circuit patterns from a photo mask onto a semiconductor wafer. The latest technological advances in this segment allow chipmakers to continually increase the number of transistors on the same area of silicon, with lithography historically representing a high portion of the cost of making cutting-edge chips. ASML outsources the manufacturing of most of its parts, acting like an assembler. ASML’s main clients are TSMC, Samsung, and Intel.

McDonald’s is the largest restaurant owner-operator in the world, with 2023 system sales of $130 billion across nearly than 42,000 stores and 115 markets. McDonald’s pioneered the franchise model, building its footprint through partnerships with independent restaurant franchisees and master franchise partners around the globe. The firm earns roughly 60% of its revenue from franchise royalty fees and lease payments, with most of the remainder coming from company-operated stores across its three core segments: the United States, internationally operated markets, and international developmental/licensed markets.