The back-to-school shopping season has just ended. In a blink, we'll be shopping for the holidays. That's should add up to a lot of shopping - but we'll see how secure consumers are feeling about their finances. Shopping patterns offer great insight into the state of consumers, who are the backbone of the U.S. economy (accounting for two-thirds of GDP). It's still a little early for some of the bigger industry groups to put out their holiday estimates, but we do have some data points to consider. Overall, the National Retail Federation expects retail sales to increase 2.5%-3.5% for the entire year. Stastista expects a 4% increase in holiday sales for 2024 compared to 2023. eMarketer forecasts a healthy 4.8% rise in holiday sales compared to last year. Salesforce predicts a 2% increase in 2024 holiday sales, which is still growing but at a slower pace than the 3% logged last year. In sum, consumer spending growth could be between 2%-5% this holiday period. Meanwhile, Forbes notes the following particulars about this upcoming holiday season: 1) it is shortened, with only 27 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas; 2) past presidential election years have shown a dip in spending leading up to and following the election; and 3) Walmart and Amazon account for roughly 38% of total retail growth, presenting a challenge for other retailers. The following is a list of BUY-rated stocks in Argus' Universe of Coverage. These represent companies that are leaders in the retail industry. Some of these stocks are also in various Argus portfolios.

Tractor Supply Co. with 2023 sales of $14.6 billion, offers a broad range of items for home, land, pet and livestock owners who generally have above average income and a below average cost of living. TSCO, based in Brentwood, Tennessee, has five product categories: Livestock and Companion Animal (pet) (combined 52% of sales); Seasonal & Recreation Products (22%); Hardware, Tools and Truck (16%); Clothing, Gift & Decorating (7%) and Agriculture (3%). More than 85% of the company's customers have pets and animals. The company ended 2023 with more than 2,400 stores in 49 states: 2,216 under the Tractor Supply banner and 198 Petsense stores. 60% of stores are free standing and 40% are in shopping centers. Texas has 253 stores. North Carolina has 118; Florida, 111; Georgia, 108; Pennsylvania, 110; Tennessee 105; and Ohio 103. Stores are typically an hour, or more, outside of major cities. Formed in 1982 from the assets of a catalog company that had been selling farm supplies since 1938, Tractor Supply is converting its older stores to larger formats (17,000-19,000 square feet) and opening new smaller-format stores and distribution centers beyond its core Southern and Midwestern markets. The company has more than 50,000 employees. TSCO shares are a component of the S&P 500. The Company's IPO was in May 1994. TSCO's year ends on the last Saturday of December.

Markets are flat at midday, though the Nasdaq is making a push higher. Calm waters on a Monday feels good after last week's turbulence. It is a busy week. On Wednesday, CPI data comes out. We see July matching June. That's 3.0% for overall inflation and 3.1% for Core inflation, which takes out energy and food prices. Thursday will be important for signals on how consumers are holding up. Retail Sales data is due and earnings from mega-giant retailer, Walmart.

Tractor Supply is the largest operator of retail farm and ranch stores in the United States. The company targets recreational farmers and ranchers and has little exposure to commercial and industrial farm operations. Currently, the company operates 2,254 of its namesake banners in 49 states, including 81 Orscheln Farm and Home stores (rebranded as Tractor Supply), along with 205 Petsense by Tractor Supply stores. Stores are generally concentrated in rural communities, as opposed to urban and suburban areas. In fiscal 2023, revenue consisted primarily of livestock, equine & agriculture (27%), companion animal (25%), and seasonal & recreation (22%).