Many in the investment world seem more focused than normal on what has happened historically in the equity markets on a seasonal basis, likely spurred by the pending presidential election. But such an exercise depends on what study one looks at, how far back the data goes (watch out for cherry-picking), and what year is examined within a four-year presidential term. Yet end of day, market returns have been pretty consistent over the years, regardless of whether the performance is measured in months, weeks, or even days. How can this be? There are a couple of structural reasons. There are times during the year when there is an influx of money into the markets; this generally helps the early part of the year and also late in the year, as investors fill up retirement funds early on and big wigs invest juicy bonuses as the year ends. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy used to be heavily weighted toward manufacturing, with companies susceptible to making various mistakes with inventories. Today, much of the consumer economy is in services, so those cycles have faded to some degree. Ultimately, many market studies have a bullish bias as the long-term returns are skewed to the positive side; after all, the market rises something like seven out of every 10 days. This year, many were worried about historically weak September, especially the last two weeks -- but so far, that fear has been a bust. One consistent historical event has been weakness in October during a presidential election year. We can't get around that, but the eventual election outcome has a lot less impact on financial markets than most believe. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals discovers, develops, and commercializes products that fight eye disease, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and inflammation. The company has several marketed products, including Eylea, approved for wet age-related macular degeneration and other eye diseases; Praluent for LDL cholesterol lowering; Dupixent in immunology; Libtayo in oncology; and Kevzara in rheumatoid arthritis. Regeneron is also developing monoclonal and bispecific antibodies with Sanofi, other collaborators, and independently, and has earlier-stage partnerships that bring new technology to the pipeline, including RNAi (Alnylam) and CRISPR-based gene editing (Intellia).

The last Monday of August was a mixed bag. The Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100 were dragged down from the start due to a tough day for semiconductors. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) fell 2.5% and is sitting on short-term support from its 10- and 21-day exponential moving averages. The SOXX has had a nice recovery since the August 5 intraday low -- and with Nvidia reporting after Wednesday's close, it's not surprising that some anxiety is building in front of the numbers. Discretionary also fell due to weakness in Tesla. Energy led the 11 S&P 500 sectors, as crude oil (WTI) bounced for a third day. Crude is back up to $77/barrel from a low last week of $71.46. The oil chart is a mess, with prices chopping around from the low $60s to the mid-$90s since the summer of 2022. Other sector strength was seen from the defensive Staples and Utilities groups, with minor gains in Materials, Financials, and Communication Services. A fair amount of people in the financial world have said that the S&P 500's almost full recovery from the pullback in the second half of July into early August has been too fast. But quick recoveries and "V" bottoms generally are quite bullish and often lead to additional all-time highs. On the weekly charts, we had quick recoveries in the latter part of 2023 and in April/May of this year. And let's not forget the recovery from the pandemic, the recovery in early 2019, the recovery in 2014, and the several recoveries in 2012. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals discovers, develops, and commercializes products that fight eye disease, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and inflammation. The company has several marketed products, including Eylea, approved for wet age-related macular degeneration and other eye diseases; Praluent for LDL cholesterol lowering; Dupixent in immunology; Libtayo in oncology; and Kevzara in rheumatoid arthritis. Regeneron is also developing monoclonal and bispecific antibodies with Sanofi, other collaborators, and independently, and has earlier-stage partnerships that bring new technology to the pipeline, including RNAi (Alnylam) and CRISPR-based gene editing (Intellia).