With every earnings win reported on Wednesday, there seems to be an equal and opposite reaction in the form of an earnings disappointment. And with earnings the main source of investor optimism or caution today, it's little surprise that the major U.S. stock indices are flat. Over the course of the morning, the indices have played jump rope with their opening levels, landing on one side for a period of time only to land on the other side shortly thereafter. Still, after multiple days of gains, the financial press is viewing the lack of further share-price progress as worrisome, and it is not difficult to find the words 'stalled' and 'lost steam' used to label the stock market today. Geopolitics are not helping, as tension in the Middle East continues to roil that area and is the basis for domestic discontent as well, while U.S. relations with China remain strained after the U.S. revoked export licenses for Intel and Qualcomm to sell chips to China's Huawei, a maker of PCs and mobile phones. The Dow was up 0.2%, the S&P 500 fell 0.1% and the Nasdaq lost 0.3%. Crude oil is trading below $79 per barrel and gold is little changed at $2324 per ounce.

Energy may be an Under-Weight sector based on our model, but that doesn't mean it shouldn't be in diversified portfolios. Energy now accounts for 3.7% of S&P 500 market cap; over the past five years, the weighting has ranged from 2% to 10%. We think investors should consider allocating 3%-4% of their diversified portfolios to the Energy group. The sector is outperforming thus far in 2024, with a gain of 14.8% compared to a 7.4% increase in the S&P 500. It underperformed in 2023, with a decline of 4.8%. The sector includes the major integrated firms, as well as exploration & production, refining, and oilfield & drilling services companies. Here are the Energy companies that either are on our Focus List or are used in our model portfolios.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID) have underperformed large-caps over the past 12 months, but may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be less disrupted by the fallout from global events. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps. As well, there are long stretches in the record books when SMID stocks have outperformed large-caps. That said, SMID stocks can be risky. The standard deviation for monthly returns was 5.7% for SMID stocks over a 2003-2021 test period, versus 4.3% for large-caps. Still, despite the risks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record.

National Fuel is an integrated energy company with approximately $8 billion in assets. The regulated gas utility operation distributes and transports gas to approximately 750,000 customers in northwestern Pennsylvania and western New York. The E&P segment, Seneca Resources, produces crude oil and natural gas in Appalachia. The Pipeline & Storage segment owns and operates natural gas pipelines running from Pennsylvania through western New York to the Canadian border near Buffalo. The company has 2,100 employees.