The S&P 500 (SPX) broke out and completed multiple bullish patterns on Thursday, including a "V" bottom with a handle, a continuous inverse head-and-shoulders, and a cup with a handle. Take your pick, they are all bullish -- but do need confirmation by way of some near-term follow-through. Using the SPY chart, we have seen three days of accumulation in the past seven. We also saw three accumulation days on the SPY off the August pullback bottom. As we said previously, based on the size of the bullish formations, the SPX could see a measured move to the 6,000-6,500 region. But when? Timing is always an issue, but with favorable seasonals, we would suspect that range could be hit during the last two months of 2024 and into early 2025. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) already had completed a bullish three-wave ABC bottom -- and with Thursday's gap higher, has broken a bearish trendline since the July peak. The index also has seen three accumulation days since the September 6 bottom and a few off the pullback low in August. Based on the size of the ABC pattern, the QQQ could see an initial measured move to the 500 zone, with a secondary target range of 527-549. While there is always a short lag from sentiment, it is interesting that certain indicators are leaning bearish -- including hedge fund exposure and the OEX open interest ratio. Meanwhile, the CBOE five-day equity-only put/call ratio is back down to the lowest levels of the year and is showing a good dose of optimism toward stocks. When this P/C ratio has fallen to these levels previously this year, stocks have at times had trouble and at other times have not. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

Gold is near all-time highs, currently around $2,556/oz. We set a technical target of $2,400 to $2,500 earlier this year. Longer-term, gold could well go to $3,000 or higher. However, the U.S. Dollar Index (USD) is very oversold and is bouncing off its prior low from late 2023. The COT data remains bearish for the USD and has been pretty accurate in forecasting the intermediate-term direction of the greenback. Gold stocks are short-term overbought with some bearish divergences and may take a breather soon. But price is the final arbiter and there is certainly little concern about the current uptrend. We do see some nagging technical issues, but at this point they are just warnings. On the weekly chart, momentum has traced out a lower peak at its most-recent closing high versus the past high in mid-April. In addition, the uptrend in the 14-week relative strength index (RSI) is in question as its primary trendline has been busted. We also have a five-wave uptrend of lesser degree off the late-2022 lows. We do have room on the weekly as far as the current bullish channel is concerned. The distance from its 200-week exponential moving average is 31%, and wide historically. On the monthly, we have seen a more-important primary five-wave rally off the lows since 2015. The latest monthly price high versus the prior high in July 2020 has not been confirmed by momentum -- and this is a glaring long-term bearish divergence. Gold has also run up to potential resistance from the top of its monthly bullish channel that has been in place since 2022. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

Wednesday was another wild ride for Information Technology, this time to the upside, with buyers taking advantage of the recent fire sale. Semiconductors were again the main event, with the iShares Semi ETF (SOXX) surging 6.7% and the VanEck Vectors Semi (SMH) soaring 7.6%. If there were a volatility index like the VIX for the semiconductor indices, it would be interesting to see how high it would have shot up during the last 15 days. We'll venture a guess that a semi VIX would have jumped up to the 35% or 40% area, mirroring when the S&P 500 (SPX) had quick declines between 12% and 16% in recent years. According to www.barchart.com, the implied volatility (IV) of the SOXX is 37%. IV measures the market's expectations for how much an asset will fluctuate, is calculated using an option pricing model, and is expressed in annualized terms. Since July 10, the SOXX has fallen between 2.2% to 7% on six separate days and has risen between 2% to 6.7% on three different occasions. Yesterday was the first day we saw evidence of accumulation on the S&P 500, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and the SOXX since late April, when the market was coming out of its last pullback. To feel better that a turn may be at hand, we would like to see three to five accumulation days over the next nine days. We also would like to see the Nasdaq and the QQQ retake their 50-day averages and would like to see a bullish cross of the five-day/13-day exponential averages. A key upside level for the SPX is a 61.8% retracement of the pullback at 5,565. For the QQQ, the 50-day is at 473.52, while a 61.8% take-back targets 484. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.