There is an interesting technical dynamic occurring that could have implications for many markets. The type of technical analysis is called intermarket analysis, made famous by John Murphy, CMT. The markets include the U.S. Dollar Index (USD), gold and silver, emerging markets, and Bitcoin. While the price charts of these markets are always the most-important barometer -- and some of the assets are stretched to the upside (metals) and the downside (greenback) -- the Commitment of Traders (COT) data lines up very well with reversals in the markets. The dollar is negatively correlated to a high degree with all the above assets. Using COT data over many decades has allowed us to make many non-consensus and reversal calls. But it can also be very frustrating because the smart-money commercial hedgers can be very early when accumulating a falling asset, and also early when selling a rising asset. In recent history, their timing toward the greenback has been very good. For instance, hedgers were bullish in early 2021 and in mid-2023, and were bearish in late 2021/early 2022, in October 2023, and in June 2024. At the same time, large speculators (hedge funds) did the opposite, and each time, it was quite effective to follow the hedgers. The COT data just turned bullish on the dollar, this as the USD is oversold, testing chart support near 100, and with sentiment that is crashing. At the same time, gold (especially) is very extended, the COT data is terrible, and sentiment is very bullish. Indeed, the ebb and flow of the financial markets never stops. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

Gold is near all-time highs, currently around $2,556/oz. We set a technical target of $2,400 to $2,500 earlier this year. Longer-term, gold could well go to $3,000 or higher. However, the U.S. Dollar Index (USD) is very oversold and is bouncing off its prior low from late 2023. The COT data remains bearish for the USD and has been pretty accurate in forecasting the intermediate-term direction of the greenback. Gold stocks are short-term overbought with some bearish divergences and may take a breather soon. But price is the final arbiter and there is certainly little concern about the current uptrend. We do see some nagging technical issues, but at this point they are just warnings. On the weekly chart, momentum has traced out a lower peak at its most-recent closing high versus the past high in mid-April. In addition, the uptrend in the 14-week relative strength index (RSI) is in question as its primary trendline has been busted. We also have a five-wave uptrend of lesser degree off the late-2022 lows. We do have room on the weekly as far as the current bullish channel is concerned. The distance from its 200-week exponential moving average is 31%, and wide historically. On the monthly, we have seen a more-important primary five-wave rally off the lows since 2015. The latest monthly price high versus the prior high in July 2020 has not been confirmed by momentum -- and this is a glaring long-term bearish divergence. Gold has also run up to potential resistance from the top of its monthly bullish channel that has been in place since 2022. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

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The major benchmarks are all higher by at least 1% with small caps and tech stocks leading the way. Walmart crushed it last quarter, bringing in higher sales and revenue. Overall, Retail Sales signal a happy consumer as well, and jobless claims are in check. It's a good day.