There is an interesting technical dynamic occurring that could have implications for many markets. The type of technical analysis is called intermarket analysis, made famous by John Murphy, CMT. The markets include the U.S. Dollar Index (USD), gold and silver, emerging markets, and Bitcoin. While the price charts of these markets are always the most-important barometer -- and some of the assets are stretched to the upside (metals) and the downside (greenback) -- the Commitment of Traders (COT) data lines up very well with reversals in the markets. The dollar is negatively correlated to a high degree with all the above assets. Using COT data over many decades has allowed us to make many non-consensus and reversal calls. But it can also be very frustrating because the smart-money commercial hedgers can be very early when accumulating a falling asset, and also early when selling a rising asset. In recent history, their timing toward the greenback has been very good. For instance, hedgers were bullish in early 2021 and in mid-2023, and were bearish in late 2021/early 2022, in October 2023, and in June 2024. At the same time, large speculators (hedge funds) did the opposite, and each time, it was quite effective to follow the hedgers. The COT data just turned bullish on the dollar, this as the USD is oversold, testing chart support near 100, and with sentiment that is crashing. At the same time, gold (especially) is very extended, the COT data is terrible, and sentiment is very bullish. Indeed, the ebb and flow of the financial markets never stops. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

Johnson Controls is a global industrial company founded in 1885 and headquartered in Cork, Ireland. The company, which employs approximately 100,000 people across 150 countries, creates intelligent buildings, efficient energy solutions, integrated infrastructure, and transportation systems. The shares are a component of the S&P 500.

Markets are flat at midday, though the Nasdaq is making a push higher. Calm waters on a Monday feels good after last week's turbulence. It is a busy week. On Wednesday, CPI data comes out. We see July matching June. That's 3.0% for overall inflation and 3.1% for Core inflation, which takes out energy and food prices. Thursday will be important for signals on how consumers are holding up. Retail Sales data is due and earnings from mega-giant retailer, Walmart.

Johnson Controls manufactures, installs, and services HVAC systems, building management systems and controls, industrial refrigeration units, and fire and security solutions. Commercial HVAC accounts for over 45% of sales, fire and security represents roughly 40% of sales, and residential HVAC, industrial refrigeration, and other solutions account for the remaining 15% of revenue. In fiscal 2023, Johnson Controls generated nearly $27 billion in revenue.