St. Petersburg, Florida-based Jabil Circuit is a top-tier global player in the Electronic Manufacturing Services (EMS) industry. By segment, approximately 50% of total revenue is derived from Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) and 50% from Diversified Manufacturing Services (DMS). The additions of Green Point and Nypro increased the size of the DMS business and added vertical manufacturing capabilities.

Monday Tee Up: Back to Labor This week, the focus on Wall Street swings back to the labor market. The September jobs report is due, as are other important labor indicators, and there's more Fedspeak, including from Chairman Jerome Powell. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both ended last week higher by 0.6%, while the Nasdaq was up 1.5%. For the year, the DJIA is higher by 12%, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have both popped by 20%. On the economic calendar, key jobs data is due on Friday by way of the Nonfarm Payrolls report. In August, 142,000 new jobs were created and the Unemployment Rate came in at 4.2%. We forecast 135,000 new jobs for September and expect the Unemployment Rate to be unchanged. In other economic news, Job Openings, ISM Manufacturing, and Construction Spending come out on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the ADP private payrolls report hits the tape. And on Thursday, new data on Factory Orders will be released. As well, 10 Fed officials speak publicly this week -- including Chairman Powell, who speaks on Monday at the annual meeting of the National Association for Business Economics. On the earnings calendar, Carnival reports on Monday; Nike, McCormick, and Paychex on Tuesday; Levi Strauss and Conagra Brands on Wednesday; and Constellation Brands on Thursday. The next reporting season kicks off in mid-October with the big banks. Last week, there was mixed news on inflation. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index showed that inflation slowed to 2.2% for August, compared to 2.5% in July. Core PCE, taking out volatile food and energy prices, ticked up to 2.7% in August from 2.6% in July. Mortgage rates dropped slightly to 6.08% for the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. Gas prices went up a penny to $3.19 per gallon for the average price of regular gas. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator is forecasting for 3Q and calls for expansion of 3.1%. The Cleveland Fed CPINow indicator for September is at 2.3%. Looking ahead, the next Fed rate decisions are on November 7 and December 18. For November, odds are at 100% for another rate cut, with 47% expecting a 25-basis-point cut and 53% a 50-basis-point cut, this according to the CME FedWatch tool. We forecasts two more rate cuts by the end of 2024 and three more in 2025, with all being 25 basis points.

St. Petersburg, Florida-based Jabil Circuit is a top-tier global player in the Electronic Manufacturing Services (EMS) industry. By segment, approximately 50% of total revenue is derived from Electronics Manufacturing Services (EMS) and 50% from Diversified Manufacturing Services (DMS). The additions of Green Point and Nypro increased the size of the DMS business and added vertical manufacturing capabilities.

Monday Tee Up: Inflation and GDP There are no summer doldrums on Wall Street this week. Key inflation data is pending as is the latest GDP data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended last week higher by 1.5%, the S&P 500 gained 0.6%, and the Nasdaq was flat. For the year, the Dow is higher by 4%, the S&P is up 15%, and the Nasdaq has popped 18%. On the economic calendar, Tuesday features the Case-Shiller Home Price Index and Consumer Confidence. On Wednesday, New Home Sales come out. On Thursday, GDP and Durable Goods Orders will be reported. But the big day is Friday when PCE, the Fed's favorite inflation indicator, comes out. In April, PCE printed at 2.7% and core PCE was 2.8%. For May, we forecast both PCE and core PCE will dropped down to 2.6%. Friday also beings updates on Personal Income, Personal Spending, and Consumer Sentiment. At least seven Fed officials have public speaking engagements this week. On the earnings calendar, Fedex and Carnival reported on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Micron Technology, General Mills, Paychex, Jefferies, and Levi Strauss. And on Thursday, Nike, Walgreens Boots Alliance, and McCormick step up to the plate. Overall earnings for 1Q came in 8% higher than in the same quarter last year. That's better than was expected before reporting season started. For 2024 in total, we forecast a 9.5% gain in earnings. Second-quarter earnings season kicks off on Friday, July 12, with the big banks. Last week, mortgage rates dipped further below the 7% mark, dropping to 6.87% for the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. Gas prices are still at $3.43 per gallon for the average price of regular gas. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator is forecasting for 2Q and calls for expansion of 3.0%. The Cleveland Fed CPINow indicator is at 3.13% for June. Looking ahead, the next Fed rate decision is at the very end of July, with odds for a cut at 10%. In mid-September, the odds pop to 66%; by November 7, they hit 78%; and by December 18, the odds ring in at 95%. Of note, the Fed's most-recent dot plot implies just one rate cut this year. Despite this, we still believe the Fed will cut twice this year and two more times in 2025.