BNY Mellon is a global investment company involved in managing and servicing financial assets throughout the investment lifecycle. The bank provides financial services for institutions, corporations, and individual investors and delivers investment management and investment services in 35 countries and more than 100 markets. BNY Mellon is the largest global custody bank in the world, with $47.8 trillion in under custody or administration (as of Dec. 31, 2023), and can act as a single point of contact for clients looking to create, trade, hold, manage, service, distribute, or restructure investments. BNY Mellon’s asset-management division manages about $2.0 trillion in assets.

BNY Mellon is a global investment company involved in managing and servicing financial assets throughout the investment lifecycle. The bank provides financial services for institutions, corporations, and individual investors and delivers investment management and investment services in 35 countries and more than 100 markets. BNY Mellon is the largest global custody bank in the world, with $47.8 trillion in under custody or administration (as of Dec. 31, 2023), and can act as a single point of contact for clients looking to create, trade, hold, manage, service, distribute, or restructure investments. BNY Mellon’s asset-management division manages about $2.0 trillion in assets.

The yield curve has been inverted for more than a year. But over the past few months, the inversion isn't so steep. This has important implications for the economic outlook. Back in April 2023, two-year Treasury note yields were about 100 basis points above 10-year yields. Now that gap is 23. There are a few reasons for this, and they point to an upcoming shift toward a normal upward-sloping curve in the next few quarters, in our view. First, U.S. economic trends have been positive. Fixed-income investors have moved away from fears of deflation and are again seeking a premium in yields versus inflation. That has lifted rates across the yield curve. Second, the Federal Reserve finally is in front of inflation and now is building a cushion, or a gap, between fed funds and core PCE in order to push inflation back toward 2.0%. This is all well and good. But if the Fed's gap is too wide for too long (we think a 200-basis-point gap is desirable, versus the current gap of 277), the central bank risks tipping the economy into a recession, which is presumably what the inverted yield curve has been signaling. Fed Chairman Powell has explained that he and his colleagues want to continue fighting stubborn inflation, so they are likely to keep short-term rates high for a period of time -- which is where the markets are now. But the day will come when the data shows that the central bank has inflationary pressures under control, and the Fed will start to lower rates in order to keep the economy growing. We think that first rate cut will be in September, with a second cut after the U.S. presidential election, and two more cuts in 1H25. Assuming those lower rates keep the economy in a growth mode, longer-term rates should remain stable and the yield curve should once again slope upward.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.