As you might know, Voyager Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:VYGR) just kicked off its latest quarterly results with some very strong numbers. Revenue crushed expectations at US$30m, beating expectations by 211%. Voyager Therapeutics reported a statutory loss of US$0.18 per share, which - although not amazing - was much smaller than the analysts predicted. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Voyager Therapeutics

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from ten analysts covering Voyager Therapeutics is for revenues of US$50.5m in 2024. This implies a sizeable 65% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The company is forecast to report a statutory loss of US$1.51 in 2024, a sharp decline from a profit over the last year. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$48.5m and US$1.80 per share in losses. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about Voyager Therapeutics' future following the latest consensus numbers, with a notable improvement in the loss per share forecasts in particular.

There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$17.56, perhaps suggesting that the analysts remain concerned about ongoing losses despite the improved earnings and revenue outlook. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Voyager Therapeutics at US$30.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$8.00. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 88% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 11% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 18% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Voyager Therapeutics' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$17.56, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Voyager Therapeutics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Voyager Therapeutics (of which 1 doesn't sit too well with us!) you should know about.

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