Wall Street is blown away by this red-hot retailer

Wall Street is blown away by this red-hot retailer·Yahoo Finance

Retailers have continued to report declining or lackluster sales growth.

But Ulta Salon (ULTA) managed to report comparable store sales growth of 15% in its first quarter report on Thursday, causing the stock to rise about 8%.

“So this is where all the traffic is going,” wrote Deutsche Bank analyst Mike Baker, who pegged the company’s quarter the ULTAmate retail earnings report.

Meanwhile, the company raised its full year guidance for comparable store sales to rise 10-12% (up from previous guidance of 8-10%) with earnings per share growth in the mid-20s. And while many retailers suffered declining margins because of promotional and discount pressure, for Ulta, margins rose 130 basis points to 13.8%, beating estimates.

“We believe it is remarkable that the comp delta to retail peers across categories and store formats continue to widen,” said RBC’s Brian Tunick.

In the last five years, Ulta’s stock has risen 350%. This beat the well-positioned home improvement retailers Home Depot (HD) and Lowe’s (LOW) by a long shot, and even bested e-commerce giant Amazon (AMZN). Traditional retailers like Macy’s (M) and Nordstrom (JWN) lag far behind.


“We view ULTA as a disruptive category killer that should continue to take share in the beauty retail space,” said Morgan Stanley’s Simeon Gutman. “The broad based sales strength in Q1 is a testament to the backbone of the business model: A one-stop shopping beauty experience that spans prestige cosmetics and makeup to professional hair to mass beauty to salon services.”

It looks like the retail space could learn a thing or two from Ulta. So below is a layout of their secret sauce.

First, its targeted marketing strategy

Despite operating over 800 stores across the US, ULTA has focused on growing its low brand awareness (40%) and low market share (3% of the estimated $121 billion US beauty products and salon services market). Its marketing strategy focuses on new customer acquisition, emphasizing “emotion and education,” according to Wells Fargo’s Ike Boruchow. This makes the company less pressured to compete on price and establishes Ulta as a “beauty authority” driving customers. Meanwhile, existing customers are targeted through a revised customer relationship management (CRM) program with offerings tailored to individuals to drive conversion.

Second, its flexible supply chain

Management is looking to become a more flexible operator that can better forecast demand and react more quickly to changing trends, according to Boruchow. Infrastructure investments with greater distribution capabilities are just starting to come online, allowing the company to better manage inventory, which has been an issue for many traditional retailers.

Third, its in-store experience emphasis

In-store services are growing rapidly, and were up 14% in the first quarter, with strength in hair treatments, blow-outs and makeup services.

Meanwhile, on the product front Ulta continues to add newness with plans to add over 500 Clinique, Lancome and Benefit boutiques. The company has also prioritized exclusive partnerships making its locations more desirable.

Fourth, its loyalty program

Costco’s (COST) membership model has served it well and Starbucks (SBUX) continues to boast about the throughput from its rewards program. Ulta’s loyalty program now has over 19 million active members, which now accounts for 80% of sales. Membership growth accelerated to 25% this quarter from 23% last quarter.

Fifth, its e-commerce progress

Ulta is clocking in digital sales growth of 40%, outpacing all retail companies.

E-commerce is set to grow to 10% of total sales from 5% today.

All of these initiatives are allowing the company to grow stores instead of having to rationalize. In fact, Ulta expects to open 100 stores in 2016, yielding 11% square footage growth. While valuation is not cheap (trading at 35x forward P/E), there is scarcity for double digit comps, 11%+ square footage growth and large addressable market share. Keep an eye out for its fall analyst day as well—CEO Mary Dillon may have some other tidbits for the struggling retailers out there.




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