The upcoming presidential election is the closest in the past 60 years, according to CNN, so it’s not surprising that the swing states are getting a lot of attention.

One issue that’s likely to be important for swing state voters is housing affordability — especially considering that the typical swing state renter makes 17% less than what they need to afford a median-priced apartment where they live, according to technology-powered real estate brokerage, Redfin.]

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Swing states, or battleground states, are states where Republican and Democratic candidates share similar levels of support. Whichever direction they “swing” tends to vary, making winning these voters over a key factor in winning a presidential election. Swing states differ from states where the party chosen is almost a foregone conclusion, such as Alaska, which has only voted Democrat once, when it backed Lyndon Johnson in 1964. This election year, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are considered swing states.

Swing state renters are struggling

The median income of a renter household in the swing states is $50,267, which is $10,365 less than the $60,633 needed to afford the median posted rent for an apartment, according to Redfin. This 17.1% shortfall is substantial, though it’s an improvement from the last presidential election, when the shortfall was 20.6%. It’s even an improvement from last year, when it sat at 22.1%.

These improvements are, in part, due to increasing incomes and sluggish rent rates, according to Redfin. Despite these improvements, a typical swing state voter still spends 36.2% of their income on rent, which means they’re “rent burdened,” spending more than 30% of their income on rent.

Both candidates in this year’s election have been paying attention to Pennsylvania because, at 19, it has the most electoral college votes of the seven swing states. Pennsylvania also happens to be the swing state with the worst rental affordability, according to Redfin. The typical renter household in Pennsylvania earns $49,168 per year, which is 29.6% less than what they need to comfortably afford median rent. This is mainly because Pennsylvania has the highest median asking rent ($1,747) of the swing states, requiring the typical renter household to spend a whopping 42.6% of their income on rent.

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Harris vs Trump: Proposed solutions

Both parties are aware of the importance of housing affordability to voters and have put forth measures to deal with the issue.

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump reportedly plans to tackle the issue by reducing regulations and opening tracts of federal land for large-scale housing construction — creating ultra-low tax and ultra-low regulation zones. He’s also said that he will control housing costs by banning mortgages for undocumented immigrants. While he’s also said he plans to lower interest rates, it’s not clear how he’ll do this as the Federal Reserve operates independently of the president.

Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris plans to work with the private sector to increase housing supply by building 3 million new homes during her term. She’s also promised to create a $40 billion tax credit to make affordable housing projects more feasible for home builders and offer tax credits to build more starter homes. To help low-income buyers, she proposes expanding the low-income housing tax credit (LIHTC). On the demand side, she’ll also provide down payment assistance of $25,000 for first-time home buyers.

While these policies tackle both the housing shortage and housing affordability problems, Bloomberg economists warn that because down payment assistance would kick in before new homes could be built under the other policies, there might be an initial spike in demand that is unmet by supply, which could force prices higher.

Regardless of what economists may say, it’s what voters think that’s important. According to a poll conducted by Ipsos for Redfin in September 2024, almost half (48.4%) of U.S. renters think Harris would make housing more affordable. About a third (31.2%) think Trump would, while 18.7% don’t know who would be best. In this tight race, where housing is a key issue in swing states, both candidates have ideas on how they’ll approach the issue — but voters will have the last word.

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This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.