One thing we could say about the analysts on Eventbrite, Inc. (NYSE:EB) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with the analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.

Following the downgrade, the consensus from seven analysts covering Eventbrite is for revenues of US$322m in 2024, implying a small 5.3% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are supposed to balloon 58% to US$0.24 per share. However, before this estimates update, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$365m and US$0.14 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase.

See our latest analysis for Eventbrite

The consensus price target fell 39% to US$5.30, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for Eventbrite's valuation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 10% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 6.3% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 8.8% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Eventbrite is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note from this downgrade is that the consensus increased its forecast losses this year, suggesting all may not be well at Eventbrite. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. With a serious cut to this year's expectations and a falling price target, we wouldn't be surprised if investors were becoming wary of Eventbrite.

Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Eventbrite analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies backed by insiders.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.