The stock market's buyers are out for the holidays

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The empty Trading Floor of the NYSE after the market has closed.
The empty Trading Floor of the NYSE after the market has closed.

The three-month long unraveling of the longest bull market in history is understandably keeping investors on the sidelines. And therein lies one of the roots of the market’s inability to rebound from its double-digit decline: a lack of buyers.

“Timid investors heading out for the holidays unsurprisingly have not been willing to step up,” wrote Citi’s chief U.S. equity strategist Tobias Levkovich. “When sentiment slides, there is little in the near term that can be done since every statement coming from either government officials and/or the Federal Reserve can be perceived as weakness that generates a new round of selling.”

Don’t let Wednesday’s historic rally, where the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) clocked its largest point gain in history of 1,086 points, fool you. On Thursday, the Dow was on track to claw back about a third of Wednesday’s gain and the blue chip index is still down 14.7% from its October 3 high.

So can you blame the holidays for the past two weeks of declines, which made the volatility in October and November look like a walk in the park? Yes.

“In a holiday-laced period, it is even less likely for any pushback as many traders are out and have closed their books for the year (in very disappointing fashion) and our sense is that it is easier to push the existing trend (which has been downward),” Levkovich wrote.

The good news is this: Citi clients don’t see a recession in 2019 and falling bond yields could help stabilize the housing market.

Yields in the 10-year Treasury, which determine rates on 30-year fixed mortgages, now stand at 2.758%, a far cry from its 2018 peak of 3.23% closing peak in November.

And investors have quite a track record of worrying about rising bond yields, which can rise in the midst of Federal Reserve rate hikes and from signs of wage inflation. Worries about higher rates was a contributor to the February 2018 selloff, which persisted for months.

Yet, are investors celebrating the recent fall in bond yields, which make stocks more attractive? No. The rampant fear across the markets is fogging one of investors’ biggest wishes this year: falling bond yields.

Scott Gamm is a reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter @ScottGamm.

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