If we're looking to avoid a business that is in decline, what are the trends that can warn us ahead of time? Typically, we'll see the trend of both return on capital employed (ROCE) declining and this usually coincides with a decreasing amount of capital employed. This indicates to us that the business is not only shrinking the size of its net assets, but its returns are falling as well. So after we looked into Smith & Nephew (LON:SN.), the trends above didn't look too great.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for Smith & Nephew, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.084 = US$735m ÷ (US$11b - US$1.8b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

Thus, Smith & Nephew has an ROCE of 8.4%. On its own, that's a low figure but it's around the 8.7% average generated by the Medical Equipment industry.

See our latest analysis for Smith & Nephew

Above you can see how the current ROCE for Smith & Nephew compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Smith & Nephew for free.

What Can We Tell From Smith & Nephew's ROCE Trend?

We are a bit worried about the trend of returns on capital at Smith & Nephew. Unfortunately the returns on capital have diminished from the 14% that they were earning five years ago. Meanwhile, capital employed in the business has stayed roughly the flat over the period. This combination can be indicative of a mature business that still has areas to deploy capital, but the returns received aren't as high due potentially to new competition or smaller margins. If these trends continue, we wouldn't expect Smith & Nephew to turn into a multi-bagger.

The Key Takeaway

In the end, the trend of lower returns on the same amount of capital isn't typically an indication that we're looking at a growth stock. Long term shareholders who've owned the stock over the last five years have experienced a 31% depreciation in their investment, so it appears the market might not like these trends either. With underlying trends that aren't great in these areas, we'd consider looking elsewhere.

Since virtually every company faces some risks, it's worth knowing what they are, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Smith & Nephew (of which 1 is concerning!) that you should know about.

While Smith & Nephew isn't earning the highest return, check out this free list of companies that are earning high returns on equity with solid balance sheets.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.