Shareholders will be ecstatic, with their stake up 22% over the past week following Qifu Technology, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:QFIN) latest quarterly results. Revenues were CN¥4.2b, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at CN¥8.92, an impressive 24% ahead of estimates. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Qifu Technology

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the ten analysts covering Qifu Technology, is for revenues of CN¥16.6b in 2024. This implies a discernible 2.7% reduction in Qifu Technology's revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to grow 15% to CN¥35.57. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥16.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥29.69 in 2024. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a nice gain to earnings per share in particular.

Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of US$26.66, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Qifu Technology at US$31.44 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$16.07. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 5.4% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 12% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 12% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Qifu Technology's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Qifu Technology's earnings potential next year. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Qifu Technology going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Qifu Technology that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.