Patrick Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:PATK) defied analyst predictions to release its quarterly results, which were ahead of market expectations. Results were good overall, with revenues beating analyst predictions by 4.6% to hit US$1.0b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at US$2.16, some 6.0% above whatthe analysts had expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Patrick Industries after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Patrick Industries

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Patrick Industries' eight analysts is for revenues of US$3.76b in 2024. This reflects a satisfactory 4.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 7.9% to US$7.38. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$3.81b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$7.94 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at US$128, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Patrick Industries, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$150 and the most bearish at US$95.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Patrick Industries' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 9.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 13% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 51 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 10% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Patrick Industries is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Patrick Industries. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Patrick Industries going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for Patrick Industries that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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