One of the biggest stories of last week was how Ocuphire Pharma, Inc. (NASDAQ:OCUP) shares plunged 29% in the week since its latest quarterly results, closing yesterday at US$1.24. Revenues fell badly short of expectations, with revenue of US$1.1m being some 43% below what the analysts had forecast. Statutory losses were in line with forecasts, with Ocuphire Pharma losing US$0.30 a share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Ocuphire Pharma

After the latest results, the consensus from Ocuphire Pharma's four analysts is for revenues of US$12.6m in 2024, which would reflect a painful 23% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Losses are forecast to balloon 46% to US$0.79 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$7.77m and losses of US$1.21 per share in 2024. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a sizeable increase to their revenue forecasts while also reducing the estimated loss as the business grows towards breakeven.

Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$16.75, implying that their latest estimates don't have a long term impact on what they think the stock is worth. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Ocuphire Pharma, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$20.00 and the most bearish at US$11.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 41% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 67% over the last three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 10% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Ocuphire Pharma is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Ocuphire Pharma going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 3 warning signs for Ocuphire Pharma that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.