Not all Fed officials wanted to raise interest rates in July, minutes show

Most members of the Federal Reserve were concerned at their last meeting about "significant upside risks" to inflation and suggested more rate hikes could be needed even as some urged caution, according to meeting minutes released by the central bank Wednesday.

"Almost all" argued for a rate hike in July, while "a couple" of participants indicated they favored leaving rates unchanged.

A similar division within the Fed has surfaced in public comments since the July meeting, when the Federal Open Market Committee raised rates by a quarter percentage point to a range of 5.25% to 5.50%.

Read more: What the Fed rate hike means for bank accounts, CDs, loans, and credit cards

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman have all argued in recent weeks that there is more work to do to bring inflation down to the Fed's target of 2%.

On the flip side, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker has said the Fed may be at a point where the central bank can hold interest rates steady and allow previous rate hikes to continue lowering inflation.

Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker.
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker. (Photo By Jeremy Drey/MediaNews Group/Reading Eagle via Getty Images) (MediaNews Group/Reading Eagle via Getty Images via Getty Images)

The same differing sentiments were on display at the meeting in July.

"Most" in the meeting cited "significant upside risks to inflation, which could require further tightening of monetary policy," according to the minutes.

But "some" urged caution, noting the "the possibility that the macroeconomic effects of the tightening in financial conditions since the beginning of last year could prove more substantial than anticipated."

Fed Chair Jerome Powell could reset expectations next week when he's expected to give a major policy speech at the Fed’s annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., put on by the Kansas City Fed.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference at the William McChesney Martin Jr. Federal Reserve Board Building following a Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday, July 26, 2023, in Washington. (AP Photo/Nathan Howard)
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. (AP Photo/Nathan Howard) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)

In his last comments at the Fed’s policy meeting on July 26, Powell said he wasn’t yet convinced on inflation to let off the gas, and said he needed to see leftover distortions from the pandemic on supply and demand ease.

"Policy has not been restrictive long, restrictive enough for long enough to have its full desired effects," Powell said. "So we intend, again, to keep policy restrictive until we're confident that inflation is coming down sustainably to our 2% target, and we’re prepared to further tighten if that is appropriate."

Markets are currently pricing in an 88.5% chance that the Fed maintains its benchmark interest rate in a range of 5.25% to 5.50% at the next meeting in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

At the July meeting several officials commented that significant disinflationary pressures had yet to become apparent in the prices of core services excluding housing.

Fed officials said they would need to see more data on inflation and further signs that supply and demand were moving into better balance to be confident that inflation was on course to return to 2% over time.

And while officials acknowledged a slowdown in job growth recently, they felt the level of payrolls was above what was needed to sustain unemployment at current levels and that nominal wages were still rising at rates above levels consistent with 2% inflation.

"Participants judged that further progress toward a balancing of demand and supply in the labor market was needed, and they expected that additional softening in labor market conditions would take place over time."

Data in the coming months will be key, according to comments made at the July meeting, helping to "clarify the extent to which the disinflation process was continuing."

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