Market forces rained on the parade of CureVac N.V. (NASDAQ:CVAC) shareholders today, when the analysts downgraded their forecasts for this year. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.

Following the downgrade, the latest consensus from CureVac's eight analysts is for revenues of €161m in 2024, which would reflect a major 145% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is anticipated to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 55% to €0.55. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €240m and losses of €0.20 per share in 2024. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts administering a notable cut to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

See our latest analysis for CureVac

The consensus price target was broadly unchanged at €6.69, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values CureVac at €14.57 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €2.37. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how think this business will perform. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily on the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the CureVac's past performance and to peers in the same industry. For example, we noticed that CureVac's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 5x growth to the end of 2024 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 17% a year over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 23% per year. So it looks like CureVac is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for this year. Unfortunately, analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates revenues are expected to perform better than the wider market. We're also surprised to see that the price target went unchanged. Still, deteriorating business conditions (assuming accurate forecasts!) can be a leading indicator for the stock price, so we wouldn't blame investors for being more cautious on CureVac after the downgrade.

Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. We have estimates - from multiple CureVac analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks with high insider ownership.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.